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Predators at Flames
NHL

Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸5
Calgary Flames
3
FinalTV FS-TN, SN360·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Calgary Flames 5-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zac Rinaldo's goal at 6:31 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.7 to 3.1; shots on goal were NSH 31, CGY 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 0.7 goals below expected; Mike Smith stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kevin Fiala (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ryan Ellis (2 A), 3. Sam Bennett (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    K. Fiala1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Ellis2 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    S. Bennett1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH18210213531
CGYCGY13110114327

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. Johansen(2)
    F. Forsberg (3), R. Ellis (4)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    0:51
  2. CGY
    E. Lindholm(5)
    J. Gaudreau (7), M. Giordano (4)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    18:43

2nd period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(3)
    K. Turris (4), K. Fiala (1)
    backhandxG 0.22win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    4:09
  2. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(3)PPG
    E. Lindholm (3), M. Giordano (5)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    12:51
  3. NSH
    K. Fiala(1)PPG
    R. Ellis (5), K. Turris (5)
    wristxG 0.51win prob +11 pts
    3-2
    14:23

3rd period

  1. CGY
    S. Bennett(2)
    D. Ryan (1), M. Stone (4)
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    2:20
  2. NSH
    Z. Rinaldo(1)
    Y. Weber (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +29 pts
    4-3
    6:31
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(5)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.52win prob +3 pts
    5-3
    19:28

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·CGY 6 PIM

2nd

  • 11:35NSHViktor Arvidsson · Slashingdrawn by Mark Giordano2 min
  • 13:53CGYJames Neal · High sticking double minordrawn by Miikka Salomaki4 min

3rd

  • 8:12CGYMichael Frolik · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min
  • 15:41NSHKevin Fiala · Hookingdrawn by James Neal2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalNSH goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Zac Rinaldo, 3rd 6:31 — NSH 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.37D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.24S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.23S. Bennett · Goal · xG 0.21M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.17S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.16E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.13S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.12J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.12G. Hathaway · On goal · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.12M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.12J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.11E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.08S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.07J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.05T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.05J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.04M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.03J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.02J. Välimäki · Missed · xG 0.02M. Frolik · Missed · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.01M. Frolik · On goal · xG 0.00M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY3 G · 3.1 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCGY
3.74 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.43 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH50%50%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.08 – 3.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCGY
31
Shots on goal
27
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
15
20
Blocked shots
10
10
Giveaways
22
10
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD022+120.14010—24:11
59R. JosiD000+230.04010—23:12
76P. SubbanD000030.12010—23:00
14M. EkholmD000+110.08120—19:59
13N. BoninoC000010.041206318:45
38R. HartmanR000+110.10000—18:45
9F. ForsbergL112+230.60100—18:06
19C. JarnkrokC000010.10000017:57
8K. TurrisC022000.121105017:38
92R. JohansenC101+230.520106716:50
22K. FialaL112031.08012—16:41
33V. ArvidssonL000+130.13102—16:29
15C. SmithC101030.3500010015:12
7Y. WeberD011000.00110—13:42
5D. HamhuisD000000.00260—13:36
10C. SissonsC000+110.100203310:00
36Z. RinaldoC101020.09410006:45
20M. SalomakiR000-110.04000—05:56
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne18153.8332.29-0.7145:09
74J. Saros(W)9901.0000.86+0.8614:51

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).