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Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins

FinalTV NBCSN, SN·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Washington Capitals 3-1. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evgeni Malkin's goal at 17:31 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 56% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were WSH 21, PIT 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Braden Holtby stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Matt Murray stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (2 G), 2. Matt Murray (20 saves, .952), 3. Evgeni Malkin (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel2 G
  2. ★★
    PIT
    M. Murray20 saves, .952
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    E. Malkin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH0711103121
PITPIT092817324

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. PIT
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    0-1
    9:21
  2. WSH
    T. Oshie(4)PPG
    snapxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    12:55
  3. PIT
    E. Malkin(4)PPG
    wristxG 0.12win prob +19 pts
    1-2
    17:31

3rd period

  1. PIT
    wristxG 0.75win prob +1 pts
    1-3
    19:02

Penalties

WSH 13 PIM·PIT 11 PIM

1st

  • 1:10WSHJohn Carlson · Hookingdrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min

2nd

  • 0:37PITEvgeni Malkin · Slashingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
  • 3:30WSHChandler Stephenson · Slashingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 11:51PITJake Guentzel · Trippingdrawn by Lars Eller2 min
  • 14:17PITJake Guentzel · Slashingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min
  • 16:10WSHT.J. Oshie · Interferencedrawn by Brian Dumoulin2 min

3rd

  • 18:49WSHserved by C. Stephenson · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 19:02PITKris Letang · Fightingdrawn by T.J. Oshie5 min
  • 19:02WSHT.J. Oshie · Fightingdrawn by Kris Letang5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalWSH goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Evgeni Malkin, 2nd 17:31 — PIT 56% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.75R. Sheahan · Missed · xG 0.44P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.34P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.15C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.13E. Malkin · Goal · xG 0.12J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.08R. Sheahan · Missed · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.06E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.06C. Hagelin · On goal · xG 0.06D. Simon · Missed · xG 0.06C. Hagelin · Missed · xG 0.05J. Oleksiak · Missed · xG 0.05S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.05J. Schultz · Missed · xG 0.04D. Simon · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.04J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.04J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.04C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.03T. Kuhnhackl · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oleksiak · Missed · xG 0.02B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02J. Schultz · On goal · xG 0.02B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.02J. Schultz · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02P. Kessel · Missed · xG 0.01P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.00T. Kuhnhackl · On goal · xG 0.00P. Hornqvist · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT3 G · 3.2 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsPIT
1.81 G
All situations
2 G3.2
1.00 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH46%54%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.76 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsPIT
21
Shots on goal
24
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/3
Power play
2/4
13
Penalty minutes
11
43
Hits
25
13
Blocked shots
13
5
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD000020.17312—25:52
2M. NiskanenD000-110.03140—23:59
9D. OrlovD000-130.10220—21:45
8A. OvechkinL000-100.04700—21:01
19N. BackstromC011020.141005820:52
92E. KuznetsovC011-150.321003619:45
77T. OshieR101010.30807—19:30
25D. Smith-PellyR000-100.006005018:18
6M. KempnyD000000.02230—16:52
18C. StephensonC000000.02112016:19
44B. OrpikD000020.03210—15:43
20L. EllerC000010.022007514:31
83J. BeagleC000000.110003812:31
13J. VranaL000000.15300—12:23
10B. ConnollyR000010.13200—12:00
29C. DjoosD000010.03100—11:08
39A. ChiassonR000010.07000—07:27
63S. GersichL000010.08110—05:48
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70B. Holtby(L)23212.9132.04+0.0458:49

Series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).