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Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals

FinalTV NBC, CBC·Verizon Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-1. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jakub Vrana's goal at 14:54 of the first period, which took the Capitals' chances from 69% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were PIT 33, WSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.6 goals below expected; Braden Holtby stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Braden Holtby (32 saves, .970), 2. Jakub Vrana (1 G), 3. Lars Eller (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    B. Holtby32 saves, .970
  2. ★★
    WSH
    J. Vrana1 G
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    L. Eller3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT01011607133
WSHWSH2201616432

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. WSH
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:26
  2. WSH
    J. Vrana(1)PPG
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    14:54

2nd period

  1. WSH
    wristxG 0.16win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    2:08
  2. PIT
    wristxG 0.03win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    13:04

3rd period

  1. WSH
    wristxG 0.72
    1-4
    19:53

Penalties

PIT 10 PIM·WSH 10 PIM

1st

  • 6:57WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Trippingdrawn by Riley Sheahan2 min
  • 12:59PITSidney Crosby · Hookingdrawn by Nicklas Backstrom2 min

2nd

  • 11:14PITPatric Hornqvist · Roughingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min
  • 11:14WSHDmitry Orlov · Roughingdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min

3rd

  • 5:38WSHT.J. Oshie · Interferencedrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min
  • 11:37PITKris Letang · Holdingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min
  • 14:48PITDerick Brassard · Trippingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min
  • 16:19WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov · Slashingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min
  • 18:17PITPatric Hornqvist · Roughingdrawn by Devante Smith-Pelly2 min
  • 18:17WSHDevante Smith-Pelly · Roughingdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalPIT goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Jakub Vrana, 1st 14:54 — WSH 69% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Backstrom · Goal · xG 0.72N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.43A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.17B. Connolly · Goal · xG 0.16J. Vrana · Goal · xG 0.15J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.15L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.14T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.12M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.11T. Oshie · On goal · xG 0.10B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.09T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.08E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.08A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.07B. Connolly · On goal · xG 0.06T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · Goal · xG 0.05C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.05N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.04J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.04D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.03N. Backstrom · Missed · xG 0.03J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.03D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.03M. Niskanen · On goal · xG 0.03M. Niskanen · Missed · xG 0.02J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Kuznetsov · Missed · xG 0.02D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.02D. Smith-Pelly · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02N. Backstrom · On goal · xG 0.01D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.01B. Orpik · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kempny · On goal · xG 0.01B. Holtby · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH4 G · 3.6 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsWSH
2.21 G
All situations
3 G3.6
1.81 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT45%55%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.17 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsWSH
33
Shots on goal
32
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/3
Power play
1/3
10
Penalty minutes
10
31
Hits
33
24
Blocked shots
31
4
Giveaways
17
5
Takeaways
16

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4J. SchultzD011010.11010—27:24
58K. LetangD101-250.10162—26:21
87S. CrosbyC000-130.412226323:37
59J. GuentzelC011-120.15200022:32
3O. MaattaD000020.07130—22:20
6J. OleksiakD000-120.03730—20:51
72P. HornqvistR000-140.37534—19:29
81P. KesselR000-120.09000—18:31
15R. SheahanC000-110.152004618:25
17B. RustR000000.00100—14:22
19D. BrassardC000-110.110026014:08
43C. ShearyL000-110.09000—13:06
2C. RuhwedelD000030.05010—11:08
12D. SimonC000-100.03200010:00
34T. KuhnhacklR000010.07320—09:11
8B. DumoulinD000-110.01010—08:59
46Z. Aston-ReeseL000030.2841010007:35
37C. RowneyC000010.121104306:18
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(L)31283.9032.42-0.5857:48

Series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).