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Predators at Coyotes
NHL

Nashville Predators at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸3
Utah Mammoth
2
FinalTV FS-A PLUS, FS-TN·Gila River Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Utah Mammoth 3-2. The Coyotes scored first; the Predators answered. The Coyotes led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kevin Fiala's goal at 4:31 of the third period, which took the Predators' chances from 47% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.0 to 2.4; shots on goal were NSH 29, ARI 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Pekka Rinne stopped 32 of 34 (.941); Darcy Kuemper stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Turris (1 G, 2 A), 2. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1 G), 3. Kevin Fiala (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    K. Turris1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    ARI
    O. Ekman-Larsson1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    K. Fiala1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH08110211329
ARIARI09211014234

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. ARI
    C. Dvorak(15)
    M. Domi (27)
    wristxG 0.00win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    4:09
  2. NSH
    R. Ellis(7)
    C. Smith (20), K. Turris (28)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    5:49
  3. ARI
    O. Ekman-Larsson(11)
    C. Keller (32), D. Stepan (33)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +20 pts
    1-2
    16:28

3rd period

  1. NSH
    K. Turris(13)
    K. Fiala (22), C. Smith (21)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    0:22
  2. NSH
    K. Fiala(23)
    K. Turris (29)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +28 pts
    3-2
    4:31

Penalties

NSH 12 PIM·ARI 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:05NSHAnthony Bitetto · Holdingdrawn by Derek Stepan2 min
  • 17:59ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson · Cross checkingdrawn by Craig Smith2 min
  • 17:59NSHCraig Smith · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min

2nd

  • 1:38ARINick Cousins · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min
  • 14:25NSHColton Sissons · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Darcy Kuemper2 min

3rd

  • 2:06NSHScott Hartnell · Holdingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 5:29NSHserved by M. Salomaki · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 8:47ARIDerek Stepan · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min
  • 9:27ARIBrad Richardson · High stickingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 11:39NSHKyle Turris · Holdingdrawn by Josh Archibald2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalNSH goalFinal: ARI 0%

Biggest swing: Kevin Fiala, 3rd 4:31 — NSH 47% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.16O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.12C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.12C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.11C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.10C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.09D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.09C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.09R. Panik · Missed · xG 0.08C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.08C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.08O. Ekman-Larsson · Goal · xG 0.07F. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.07O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.07O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.06J. Demers · On goal · xG 0.06J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.06O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.05K. Connauton · On goal · xG 0.05J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.05M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.04C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.04B. Perlini · Missed · xG 0.04D. Stepan · Missed · xG 0.04C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Perlini · On goal · xG 0.03R. Panik · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03B. Richardson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.03A. Goligoski · On goal · xG 0.02A. Goligoski · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.02K. Connauton · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.02C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.01N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.01K. Connauton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01B. Perlini · On goal · xG 0.01C. Dvorak · Goal · xG 0.00A. Goligoski · Missed · xG 0.00B. Perlini · On goal · xG 0.00D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.00D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.00
ARI2 G · 2.4 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsARI
3.03 G
All situations
2 G2.4
2.03 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.40 G
Power play
0 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH50%50%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.42 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsARI
29
Shots on goal
34
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
0/5
12
Penalty minutes
8
29
Hits
29
20
Blocked shots
15
9
Giveaways
13
1
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD101+220.30010—23:12
76P. SubbanD000010.11400—23:10
14M. EkholmD000000.00030—22:08
59R. JosiD000030.21200—22:08
92R. JohansenC000000.001005719:50
25A. EmelinD000010.01130—16:22
22K. FialaL112+360.39300—16:06
8K. TurrisC123+320.220025415:54
9F. ForsbergL000-100.09400—15:38
33V. ArvidssonL000-130.38100—14:47
51A. WatsonL000020.57310—14:09
13N. BoninoC000-110.020603613:48
2A. BitettoD000020.13222—13:16
10C. SissonsC000-140.271125613:10
15C. SmithC022+320.2450210012:40
38R. HartmanR000-200.00020—11:53
17S. HartnellL000000.00112—10:35
20M. SalomakiR000000.02100—09:29
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Rinne(W)34322.9412.41+0.4159:53

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).