Capitals at Flames 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Washington Capitals

Calgary Flames

▸2

FinalTV NBCSWA, SN360·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Washington Capitals 2-1. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sean Monahan's goal at 9:09 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were WSH 31, CGY 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Philipp Grubauer stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Johnny Gaudreau (2 A), 2. Brett Kulak (1 A), 3. Mike Smith (30 saves, .968).

Three stars

★
J. Gaudreau2 A
★★
B. Kulak1 A
★★★
M. Smith30 saves, .968

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	012	010	19	131
CGY	014	115	19	238

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

M. Ferland(3)
B. Kulak (1), J. Gaudreau (11)
tip-inxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
0-1
2:08

3rd period

J. Vrana(3)
T. Oshie (4)
wristxG 0.09win prob +26 pts
1-1
4:19
S. Monahan(6)
J. Gaudreau (12), M. Giordano (3)
wristxG 0.13win prob +30 pts
1-2
9:09

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

12:35Micheal Ferland · Trippingdrawn by Brooks Orpik2 min
19:08Kris Versteeg · Trippingdrawn by Brooks Orpik2 min

3rd

10:37Lars Eller · Slashingdrawn by Brett Kulak2 min
17:26served by C. Stephenson · Too many men on the ice2 min
20:00Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

100%

Biggest swing: Sean Monahan, 3rd 9:09 — CGY 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 3.2 xG · 57 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.3 xG · 38 att CGY

2 G · 3.2 xG · 57 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.31 G
All situations: 2 G3.2; 1.71 G
Even strength: 2 G2.5; 0.60 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

36%64%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 3.10

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 38; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 17
Hits: 20; 7
Blocked shots: 8; 8
Giveaways: 4; 5
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. CarlsonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.06	0	1	0	—	27:38
44B. OrpikD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	2	0	—	23:59
9D. OrlovD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.17	0	0	0	—	21:10
77T. OshieR	0	1	1	+1	4	0.19	1	1	0	75	21:05
19N. BackstromC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.08	1	0	0	54	20:08
8A. OvechkinL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.32	2	0	0	—	18:41
92E. KuznetsovC	0	0	0	-1	4	0.24	0	0	2	50	18:35
18C. StephensonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	15:49
22M. BoweyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	1	0	—	15:36
13J. VranaL	1	0	1	+1	3	0.39	0	0	0	100	15:19
20L. EllerC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.16	2	1	2	18	15:17
43T. WilsonR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.36	3	0	0	—	14:50
55A. NessD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:58
25D. Smith-PellyR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	2	0	0	—	13:54
29C. DjoosD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	—	13:23
83J. BeagleC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	80	11:58
39A. ChiassonR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.21	1	0	0	—	10:57
14A. PelusoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	04:32

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31P. Grubauer(L)	38	36	2	.947	3.17	+1.17	59:11

Season series

CGY leads 2-0

Oct 291@2this game
Nov 204@1Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score