Navy vs. Army Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 15.7 toward 
ARMY
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread |  NAVY −2.5 | ARMY −13.2 |
| ARMY win | 44% | 79% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Navy gets at Army: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 128th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Army gets at Navy: 3rd at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 129th at generating havoc. Navy is also 13th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 120th.
HowNAVYattacksARMY
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138ARMY#128 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#13 of 138ARMY#120 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#16 of 138ARMY#97 of 138
HowARMYattacksNAVY
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ARMY#3 of 138NAVY#129 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
ARMY#4 of 138NAVY#113 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
ARMY#50 of 138NAVY#130 of 138
The two teams
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 130th at defending the pass, and they are 129th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#13projected
- Offenserunning it#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#130projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#129projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#129projected
Army
Army runs it: Jeff Monken's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at keeping a clean pocket. The way in is 132nd at hitting chunk plays, and they are 128th at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+12.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −10.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Army has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#3projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#132projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#128projected
- Defensefirst and second down#124projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1530, NAVY Elo 1513 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ARMY -13.2 (79% to win) — 15.7 points clear of ARMY's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
NAVY44th61stARMYARMY19th109thNAVYThrough the air
NAVY136th46thARMYARMY131st133rdNAVYOn the ground
NAVY2nd51stARMYARMY1st6thNAVYStaying on the field
NAVY62nd74thARMYARMY33rd113thNAVYTaking care of it
NAVY47th129thARMYARMY21st129thNAVY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 63–55–7 · Navy has won 2 straight · 51% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 (#111) | CORE overall | -8.3 (#103) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | +2 / +11 |
| 2.54 | points / drive | 3.00 |
| 3.67 | allowed / drive | 3.50 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -27 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Navy vs. Army?
Gridpex's model favors Army with a 79% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Navy vs. Army?
The model projects Army by 13.2.
What time is Navy vs. Army and what channel is it on?
Sat, Dec 12, 3:00 PM ET, at MetLife Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →