Tulane vs. Rice Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Tulane gets at Rice: 60th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 126th at generating havoc. Rice projects no clear way in against Tulane. Tulane is also 65th at throwing it, against a unit 126th.
How
TULNattacks
RICE
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TULN#60 of 138RICE#126 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TULN#65 of 138RICE#126 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
TULN#61 of 138RICE#115 of 138
The two teams
Tulane
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 108th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −26.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Rice
Rice is in year 2 under Scott Abell. The way in is 138th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 132nd at staying on schedule through the air.
Rice has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#138projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#132projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RICE Elo 1147, TULN Elo 1528 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RICE +3.7 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TULN55th111thRICERICE122nd105thTULNThrough the air
TULN88th97thRICERICE138th80thTULNOn the ground
TULN103rd87thRICERICE12th131stTULNStaying on the field
TULN99th109thRICERICE56th131stTULNTaking care of it
TULN21st109thRICERICE104th109thTULN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesRice leads 20–17–1 · Tulane has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| TULN | RICE | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.8 (#66) | CORE overall | -20.5 (#132) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | -14 / +6 |
| 1.41 | points / drive | -0.70 |
| 1.95 | allowed / drive | 5.00 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 60% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulane vs. Rice?
Gridpex's model favors Tulane with a 59% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulane vs. Rice?
The model projects Tulane by 3.7.
What time is Tulane vs. Rice and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Rice Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →