Tulsa vs. Tulane Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Tulane gets at Tulsa: 45th at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 92nd at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Tulsa projects no clear way in against Tulane. Tulane is also 60th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 101st.
How
TULNattacks
TLSA
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
TULN#45 of 138TLSA#92 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TULN#60 of 138TLSA#101 of 138
The two teams
Tulsa
Tulsa is in year 2 under Tre Lamb. The way in is 126th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 106th at throwing it.
Tulsa has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
- Offensethrowing it#106projected
Tulane
Tulane runs it: Will Hall's offenses have been run-leaning across 4 seasons. The way in is 108th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −26.8% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Tulane has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#108projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1528, TLSA Elo 1271 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -3.6 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TLSA93rd105thTULNTULN55th57thTLSAThrough the air
TLSA108th80thTULNTULN88th124thTLSAOn the ground
TLSA53rd131stTULNTULN103rd42ndTLSAStaying on the field
TLSA135th131stTULNTULN99th66thTLSATaking care of it
TLSA21st109thTULNTULN21st9thTLSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTulsa leads 13–8 · Tulane has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.8 (#84) | CORE overall | +0.8 (#66) |
| -6 / -2 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 2.29 | points / drive | 1.41 |
| 1.29 | allowed / drive | 1.95 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulsa vs. Tulane?
Gridpex's model favors Tulane with a 59% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulsa vs. Tulane?
The model projects Tulane by 3.6.
What time is Tulsa vs. Tulane and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Yulman Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →