Idaho State vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
IDAHTeam statsUSU
- Q4 4:39IDAHMason Lindberg 41 Yd Field Goal 29–17
- Q4 14:13IDAHChedon James 8 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Mason Lindberg Kick)26–17
- Q3 0:26IDAHMason Lindberg 43 Yd Field Goal 19–17
- Q3 4:39USUDemick Starling 4 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)16–17
- Q2 0:04USUKian Afrookhteh 28 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 6:42IDAHMason Lindberg 25 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 8:23IDAHJordan Cooke 1 Yd Run (Mason Lindberg Kick)13–7
- Q1 1:57IDAHMason Lindberg 48 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 5:52USUEli Wood 15 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:04IDAHMason Lindberg 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
Idaho State walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
Mason Lindberg scored 15 of Idaho State's points. Idaho State knocks off Utah State, 29-17 at Maverik Stadium. Idaho State was not the side anyone expected to be up 12 at the end of it.
- PassJordan Cooke 18/33, 152 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCarson Sudbury 3 CAR, 37 YDS
- RecJulian Mason 7 REC, 75 YDS
- PassMcCae Hillstead 15/30, 178 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushJaven Jacobs 20 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecEli Wood 6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsIDAH up 2 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,937 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:13IDAH +36%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Cooke pass complete short left to #8 C.James caught at USU00, for 8 yards to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:32IDAH +22%
#48 S.Buck punt 34 yards to the USU44 fair catch by #8 J.Jacobs at USU44
- Q3 4:39USU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Hillstead pass complete short left to #6 D.Starling caught at ISU00, for 4 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 0:26IDAH +17%
#26 M.Lindberg field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD
- Q4 6:17IDAH +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Cooke pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Mason thrown to USU33 PENALTY USU Pass Interference (#5 M.Grant) 15 yards from USU48 to USU33, 1ST DOW…
- Q4 14:04USU +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Robinson rush right for 3 yards gain to the USU30 (#4 J.Daniels)
FAQ
What was the final score of Idaho State vs. Utah State?
Idaho State 29, Utah State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| IDAH | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 241 | Total yards | 407 |
| 152 | Passing yards | 245 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 14 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 18/33 | Comp/Att | 20/44 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 3.0 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-71 | Penalties | 11-83 |
| 26:27 | Possession | 33:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:26 IDAH field goal on 4th & 1 at USU 26. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:39IDAHMason Lindberg 41 Yd Field Goal 29–17
- Q4 14:13IDAHChedon James 8 Yd pass from Jordan Cooke (Mason Lindberg Kick)26–17
- Q3 0:26IDAHMason Lindberg 43 Yd Field Goal 19–17
- Q3 4:39USUDemick Starling 4 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)16–17
- Q2 0:04USUKian Afrookhteh 28 Yd Field Goal 16–10
- Q2 6:42IDAHMason Lindberg 25 Yd Field Goal 16–7
- Q2 8:23IDAHJordan Cooke 1 Yd Run (Mason Lindberg Kick)13–7
- Q1 1:57IDAHMason Lindberg 48 Yd Field Goal 6–7
- Q1 5:52USUEli Wood 15 Yd pass from McCae Hillstead (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)3–7
- Q1 9:04IDAHMason Lindberg 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency, with home-field advantage. That projects USU -33.9 (98% to win) — 18.9 points clear of USU's market line of -15. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
The matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#4 of 10 in 2026 by biggest miss · #3 of 10 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →Idaho State knocks off Utah State, 29-17
Idaho State walked in the underdog and walked out with the win. What actually happened.
The turnover battle was the game
Idaho State won the turnover battle 0-4: TreShawn Shorty (2 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 1.5 tackles), Jacob Perez (1 INT, 5.5 tackles) and Troy Wilkey (1 INT, 1.5 tackles). Utah State produced 9 plays of 15+ yards to Idaho State's 3, chiefly McCae Hillstead (involved in 5), Eli Wood (involved in 2) and Grady Brosterhous (involved in 2). That's what carried Idaho State.
The plays that turned it
Three plays carried most of the swing. Grady Brosterhous's 2-yard run that came up short on 4th-and-1 at Q3 06:22. Then Jordan Cooke's 30-yard throw to Julian Mason on 3rd-and-11 at Q3 02:10. Later, Grady Brosterhous's 22-yard throw to Nikko Boncore on 4th-and-11 at Q4 00:21.
The standouts
Jordan Cooke threw for 152 yards on 33 attempts with one touchdown and ran 11 times for 5 yards and one score, including two of them from inside the 20 and four third-down conversions. Julian Mason caught seven passes for 75 yards. For Utah State, McCae Hillstead threw for 178 yards on 30 attempts with two touchdowns and ran nine times for 43 yards, with that score from inside the 20, six third-down conversions and a hand in five plays of 15 yards or more. Eli Wood caught six passes for 90 yards, one of them for a touchdown — two third-down conversions. Demick Starling caught three passes for 30 yards, one of them for a touchdown — that score from inside the 20 and two third-down conversions. TreShawn Shorty was the disruptive one for Idaho State: 2 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 1.5 tackles.
How it unfolded
Idaho State struck first through Mason Lindberg, led 16-10 at the half and Idaho State got the final points on a late field goal by Mason Lindberg.
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep, all for Idaho State: TreShawn Shorty (2 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 1.5 tackles) and Trehsyn Fesili (2.5 sacks, 2.5 TFLs, 5 tackles). 3 of Idaho State's 3 sacks came from the defensive line.
How it graded
The closing line had Utah State -15.5. Idaho State covered. The total was 59.5; the teams combined for 46, an under. Mason Lindberg accounted for 15 of Idaho State's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
A program win for Idaho State; a gut-check loss Utah State won't soon forget. McCae Hillstead was responsible for 12 of Utah State's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →