UCLA vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Michigan gets at UCLA: 16th at moving the ball on the ground, against a unit 136th at shutting down the ground game. UCLA projects no clear way in against Michigan. Michigan is also 17th on first and second down, against a unit 131st.
How
MICHattacks
UCLA
- 1
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
MICH#16 of 138UCLA#136 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected
MICH#17 of 138UCLA#131 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
MICH#20 of 138UCLA#132 of 138
The two teams
UCLA
UCLA is in year 1 under Bob Chesney. The strengths are defensive, led by 8th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 136th at shutting down the ground game, and they are 132nd at closing out passing downs.
UCLA has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#8projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#136projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#132projected
- Defensefirst and second down#131projected
Michigan
Michigan is in year 1 under Kyle Whittingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at running it. The way in is 115th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#14projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#16projected
- Offensefirst and second down#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#115projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1702, UCLA Elo 1487 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -6.2 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UCLA36th25thMICHMICH118th33rdUCLAThrough the air
UCLA114th22ndMICHMICH127th45thUCLAOn the ground
UCLA22nd68thMICHMICH105th83rdUCLAStaying on the field
UCLA54th71stMICHMICH121st89thUCLATaking care of it
UCLA47th76thMICHMICH74th22ndUCLA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 8–3 · 27% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +15.5 (#26) | CORE overall | +16.1 (#24) |
| +8 / -8 | offense / defense | +5 / -11 |
| 3.18 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 0.95 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 47% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win UCLA vs. Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UCLA vs. Michigan?
The model projects Michigan by 6.2.
What time is UCLA vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Michigan Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →