Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 11 toward 
IU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | IU −6 | IU −17 |
 MICH win | 31% | 12% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Indiana gets at Michigan: 10th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 55th at closing out passing downs. Michigan projects no clear way in against Indiana. Indiana is also 15th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 59th.
HowIUattacksMICH
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
IU#10 of 138MICH#55 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
IU#15 of 138MICH#59 of 138 - 3
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
IU#6 of 138MICH#41 of 138
The two teams
Indiana
Indiana is in year 3 under Curt Cignetti, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 2nd at stuffing runs at the line. The way in is 125th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 113th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Indiana has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#4projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#5projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#125projected
- Defensehitting chunk plays#113projected
Michigan
Michigan is in year 1 under Kyle Whittingham, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at running it. The way in is 115th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −23.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Michigan has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offenserunning it#14projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#16projected
- Offensefirst and second down#17projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#115projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1702, IU Elo 2113 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH +17 (12% to win) — 11.0 points clear of IU's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
IU11th25thMICHMICH118th15thIUThrough the air
IU78th22ndMICHMICH127th16thIUOn the ground
IU34th68thMICHMICH105th29thIUStaying on the field
IU9th71stMICHMICH121st33rdIUTaking care of it
IU21st76thMICHMICH74th76thIU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 62–11 · 26% have been one-possession games
| IU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.3 (#12) | CORE overall | +16.1 (#24) |
| +14 / -8 | offense / defense | +5 / -11 |
| 5.78 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 1.78 | allowed / drive | 0.95 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 47% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Indiana vs. Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Indiana with a 88% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Indiana vs. Michigan?
The model projects Indiana by 17.0.
What time is Indiana vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Michigan Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →