Oklahoma vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Neither side projects a clear way in. Oklahoma and Missouri rate within touching distance on every unit matchup here, closest at hitting chunk plays — on this evidence it comes down to the things a season profile cannot see.
The two teams
Oklahoma
Oklahoma is in year 5 under Brent Venables, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 1st at stuffing runs at the line.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oklahoma has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#1projected
- Defensefirst and second down#2projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#2projected
Missouri
Missouri is in year 7 under Eli Drinkwitz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th on early downs defensively. The way in is 111th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Missouri has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensefirst and second down#5projected
- Defensethrowing it#9projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#111projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1691, OU Elo 1783 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ +0.8 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OU85th17thMIZMIZ34th28thOUThrough the air
OU87th26thMIZMIZ17th3rdOUOn the ground
OU100th35thMIZMIZ48th84thOUStaying on the field
OU89th12thMIZMIZ33rd16thOUTaking care of it
OU74th46thMIZMIZ47th76thOU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma leads 68–25–5 · 33% have been one-possession games
| OU | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +17.1 (#21) | CORE overall | +21.6 (#13) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | +8 / -13 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 3.46 |
| 0.48 | allowed / drive | 1.17 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Oklahoma vs. Missouri?
Gridpex's model favors Oklahoma with a 52% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oklahoma vs. Missouri?
The model projects Oklahoma by 0.8.
What time is Oklahoma vs. Missouri and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →