Western Illinois vs. Northern Iowa: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Western Illinois0-1

06

Northern Iowa0-1

▸0050

Final

UNI-DomeConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
WEST	0	0	0	6	6
NORT	21	12	14	3	50

WESTTeam statsNORT

144Total yards476

127Pass251

17Rush225

10First downs24

7-163rd down5-9

2Turnovers1

28:54Possession31:06

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:49WESTTaj Sanders 4 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek PAT failed)6–50
• Q4 11:05NORTMatthew Cook 28 Yd Field Goal 0–50
• Q3 7:54NORTBrady McCullough 14 Yd pass from Aidan Dunne (Matthew Cook Kick)0–47
• Q3 12:52NORTTyjahree Edwards 29 Yd Run (Matthew Cook Kick)0–40
• Q2 3:05NORTMatthew Cook 22 Yd Field Goal 0–33
• Q2 10:13NORTAmauri Pesek-Hickson 2 Yd Run (Matthew Cook Kick)0–30
• Q2 14:55NORTTeam Safety0–23
• Q1 1:27NORTAlex Allen 2 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:29NORTAmauri Pesek-Hickson 6 Yd Run (Matthew Cook Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:52NORTSergio Morancy 27 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)0–7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NORT 100%50%WEST 100%

Kickoff126 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NORT (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NORT 100%

Leaders

Western Illinois

• PassMatt Morrissey 18/24, 127 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushTorrance Farmer Jr. 6 CAR, 11 YDS
• RecJay Parker 9 REC, 64 YDS

Northern Iowa

• PassTheo Day 12/16, 201 YDS, 2 TD
• RushTye Edwards 12 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
• RecSam Schnee 4 REC, 54 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

117

Points / snap

0.48

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NORT up 47 entering the 4th quarter. Across 135 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NORT went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WWashington State vs Portland State70-30WLSU vs Grambling72-10WOregon State vs UC Davis55-7WRobert Morris vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WLSU vs Army62-0

Fourth downs

11 calls

NORT gave up 0.8 points to the model on fourth down.WEST 5/6 · NORT 1/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Illinois vs. Northern Iowa?

Western Illinois 6, Northern Iowa 50.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NORT) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEST

NORT

29%

Success rate

56%

0.28

EPA / pass

0.75

-0.31

EPA / rush

0.24

22%

Early-down success

56%

44%

Pass success

70%

14%

Rush success

49%

5%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

16%

31%

Stuffed rush rate

24%

48%

Pass rate

33%

7.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.7

WEST

7.6 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

NORT

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEST		NORT
144	Total yards	476
127	Passing yards	251
17	Rushing yards	225
10	First downs	24
7-16	3rd down	5-9
0-4	4th down	0-0
18/24	Comp/Att	15/20
5.3	Yards per pass	12.6
0.5	Yards per rush	5.6
2	Turnovers	1
1-15	Penalties	3-28
28:54	Possession	31:06

Fourth downs

11 calls

WEST

5/6 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

NORT

1/3 with the model

−0.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 10:00 WEST go for it on 4th & 6 at WEST 39. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.43 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEST 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NORT 8/11 scoring drives

NORTTD1 pl, 6 yds· opp 6Q1

WESTDOWNS7 pl, 32 yds· own 30Q1

NORTTD5 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

WESTPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 16Q1

NORTFUM4 pl, 17 yds· own 45Q1

WESTFUM3 pl, 0 yds· own 8Q1

NORTTD5 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1

WESTSAF4 pl, 7 yds· own 1Q1

NORTTD8 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2

WESTPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

NORTFG12 pl, 69 yds· own 27Q2

WESTPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2

NORTPUNT4 pl, 31 yds· own 27Q2

WESTEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q2

NORTTD1 pl, 29 yds· opp 29Q3

WESTINT4 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3

WESTDOWNS7 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

NORTTD4 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q3

WESTPUNT4 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q3

NORTFG16 pl, 79 yds· own 11Q3

WESTTD15 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

NORTEND3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 1:49WESTTaj Sanders 4 Yd pass from Matt Morrissey (Owen Valek PAT failed)6–50
• Q4 11:05NORTMatthew Cook 28 Yd Field Goal 0–50
• Q3 7:54NORTBrady McCullough 14 Yd pass from Aidan Dunne (Matthew Cook Kick)0–47
• Q3 12:52NORTTyjahree Edwards 29 Yd Run (Matthew Cook Kick)0–40
• Q2 3:05NORTMatthew Cook 22 Yd Field Goal 0–33
• Q2 10:13NORTAmauri Pesek-Hickson 2 Yd Run (Matthew Cook Kick)0–30
• Q2 14:55NORTTeam Safety0–23
• Q1 1:27NORTAlex Allen 2 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)0–21
• Q1 8:29NORTAmauri Pesek-Hickson 6 Yd Run (Matthew Cook Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:52NORTSergio Morancy 27 Yd pass from Theo Day (Matthew Cook Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →