Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FAUTeam statsMTSU
- Q4 5:47MTSUFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)21–49
- Q3 4:47MTSUDarius Bracy 5 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)21–42
- Q3 8:03FAUJahmal Edrine 45 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Carter Davis Kick)21–35
- Q3 10:20MTSUFrank Peasant 18 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:14FAULarry McCammon 5 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)14–28
- Q2 2:22MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 14 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:25MTSUFrank Peasant 5 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:40MTSUDarius Bracy 16 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:35FAUN'Kosi Perry 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:17MTSUIzaiah Gathings 5 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FAU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MTSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.9 vs 3rd & 4.7
- PassN'Kosi Perry 19/36, 325 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLarry McCammon III 14 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJahmal Edrine 6 REC, 109 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChase Cunningham 40/54, 448 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushFrank Peasant 13 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
- RecFrank Peasant 8 REC, 107 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMTSU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:40MTSU +20%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for 16 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q2 9:25MTSU +19%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q1 12:17MTSU +18%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q1 9:35FAU +18%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd for a TD, (Carter Davis KICK)
- Q2 2:22MTSU +11%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 14 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
- Q2 0:14FAU +11%
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds for a TD MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) declined, (Carter Davis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida Atlantic vs. Middle Tennessee?
Florida Atlantic 21, Middle Tennessee 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FAU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FAU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 356 | Total yards | 615 |
| 325 | Passing yards | 448 |
| 31 | Rushing yards | 167 |
| 16 | First downs | 30 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/37 | Comp/Att | 40/54 |
| 8.8 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 26:24 | Possession | 33:36 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:28 FAU punt on 4th & 2 at FAU 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.31 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:47MTSUFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)21–49
- Q3 4:47MTSUDarius Bracy 5 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)21–42
- Q3 8:03FAUJahmal Edrine 45 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Carter Davis Kick)21–35
- Q3 10:20MTSUFrank Peasant 18 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)14–35
- Q2 0:14FAULarry McCammon 5 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)14–28
- Q2 2:22MTSUDJ England-Chisolm 14 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)7–28
- Q2 9:25MTSUFrank Peasant 5 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:40MTSUDarius Bracy 16 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)7–14
- Q1 9:35FAUN'Kosi Perry 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:17MTSUIzaiah Gathings 5 Yd pass from Chase Cunningham (Zeke Rankin Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MTSU Elo 1300, FAU Elo 1470 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MTSU +4.4 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#15 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #80 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →Middle Tennessee leads 14–5 · Middle Tennessee has won 2 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| FAU | MTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -7.5 (#91) | CORE overall | -5.4 (#86) |
| -3 / +5 | offense / defense | -8 / -3 |
| 2.27 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.26 | allowed / drive | 1.89 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →