Florida International vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FIUTeam statsCLT
- Q4 1:20CLTShadrick Byrd 5 Yd pass from James Foster (James Foster Pass to Taylor Thompson for Two-Point Conversion)34–15
- Q4 12:10CLTChris Reynolds 2 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)34–7
- Q3 2:54FIUKris Mitchell 5 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)34–0
- Q2 10:04FIULexington Joseph 15 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel PAT blocked)27–0
- Q2 12:02FIULexington Joseph 1 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)21–0
- Q1 8:48FIUGrayson James 9 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:31FIUGrayson James 12 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassGrayson James 26/34, 306 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushLexington Joseph 17 CAR, 72 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTyrese Chambers 10 REC, 143 YDS
- PassChris Reynolds 23/38, 244 YDS, 3 INT
- RushShadrick Byrd 9 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecElijah Spencer 6 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFIU up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:48FIU +19%
Grayson James run for 9 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q2 12:02FIU +18%
Lexington Joseph run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q1 13:31FIU +16%
Grayson James run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel KICK)
- Q2 10:04FIU +9%
Lexington Joseph run for 15 yds for a TD, (Chase Gabriel PAT BLOCKED)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida International vs. Charlotte?
Florida International 34, Charlotte 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CLT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FIU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 453 | Total yards | 337 |
| 306 | Passing yards | 277 |
| 147 | Rushing yards | 60 |
| 25 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 26/34 | Comp/Att | 25/43 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 3.4 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-45 | Penalties | 3-33 |
| 34:38 | Possession | 25:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:31 CLT go for it on 4th & 9 at FIU 9. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.56 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:20CLTShadrick Byrd 5 Yd pass from James Foster (James Foster Pass to Taylor Thompson for Two-Point Conversion)34–15
- Q4 12:10CLTChris Reynolds 2 Yd Run (Antonio Zita Kick)34–7
- Q3 2:54FIUKris Mitchell 5 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)34–0
- Q2 10:04FIULexington Joseph 15 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel PAT blocked)27–0
- Q2 12:02FIULexington Joseph 1 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)21–0
- Q1 8:48FIUGrayson James 9 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:31FIUGrayson James 12 Yd Run (Chase Gabriel Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1121, FIU Elo 910 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT -10.8 (77% to win) — 3.2 points clear of FIU's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #29 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| FIU | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.3 (#129) | CORE overall | -22.8 (#126) |
| -14 / +13 | offense / defense | -3 / +19 |
| 1.03 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 3.10 | allowed / drive | 3.36 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →