App State vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsTXST
- Q4 0:00APPDalton Stroman 3 Yd pass from Chase Brice 24–36
- Q4 5:08TXSTSeth Keller 37 Yd Field Goal 18–36
- Q4 13:02APPHenry Pearson 2 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Chase Brice Pass to Christan Horn for Two-Point Conversion)18–33
- Q3 1:04TXSTSeth Keller 29 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q3 7:37APPHenry Pearson 12 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Michael Hughes Kick)10–30
- Q3 10:06TXSTTory Spears 94 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)3–30
- Q2 0:00APPMichael Hughes 30 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 0:40TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 23 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)0–24
- Q2 6:46TXSTSeth Keller 33 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 14:20TXSTCharles Brown 2 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:54TXSTLincoln Pare 2 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- APP lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassChase Brice 40/53, 395 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushNate Noel 5 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecDalton Stroman 5 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- PassLayne Hatcher 26/36, 281 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLincoln Pare 20 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAshtyn Hawkins 6 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTXST up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:20TXST +21%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q1 4:54TXST +17%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q2 6:46TXST +13%
Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:40TXST +12%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 23 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
- Q3 10:06TXST +10%
Tory Spears 94 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Run for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q4 10:44TXST +9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 30
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Texas State?
App State 24, Texas State 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked APP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| APP | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 436 | Total yards | 334 |
| 395 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 41 | Rushing yards | 53 |
| 20 | First downs | 22 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 2-6 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 40/53 | Comp/Att | 26/36 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 12-105 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 27:21 | Possession | 32:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:46 TXST field goal on 4th & 1 at APP 16. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.92 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00APPDalton Stroman 3 Yd pass from Chase Brice 24–36
- Q4 5:08TXSTSeth Keller 37 Yd Field Goal 18–36
- Q4 13:02APPHenry Pearson 2 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Chase Brice Pass to Christan Horn for Two-Point Conversion)18–33
- Q3 1:04TXSTSeth Keller 29 Yd Field Goal 10–33
- Q3 7:37APPHenry Pearson 12 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Michael Hughes Kick)10–30
- Q3 10:06TXSTTory Spears 94 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)3–30
- Q2 0:00APPMichael Hughes 30 Yd Field Goal 3–24
- Q2 0:40TXSTAshtyn Hawkins 23 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)0–24
- Q2 6:46TXSTSeth Keller 33 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q2 14:20TXSTCharles Brown 2 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Seth Keller Kick)0–14
- Q1 4:54TXSTLincoln Pare 2 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1202, APP Elo 1628 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST +14.6 (18% to win) — 4.9 points clear of TXST's market line of +19.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2022
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#18 of 108 in 2022 by biggest miss · #11 of 132 in 2022 by longest odds.
The 2022 upset archive →| APP | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.0 (#63) | CORE overall | -15.5 (#115) |
| +6 / +6 | offense / defense | -13 / +3 |
| 2.57 | points / drive | 1.44 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 2.05 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →