Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
EMUTeam statsWMU
- Q4 1:14EMUChad Ryland 20 Yd Field Goal 53–42
- Q4 5:42WMUSkyy Moore 5 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)50–42
- Q4 9:46EMUSamson Evans 4 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)50–35
- Q4 13:50WMULa'Darius Jefferson 3 Yd Run (Gavin Peddie Kick)43–35
- Q3 1:25EMUChad Ryland 25 Yd Field Goal 43–28
- Q3 4:05EMUChad Ryland 46 Yd Field Goal 40–28
- Q3 5:02EMUDarius Boone Jr. 4 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)37–28
- Q3 9:54WMUD'Wayne Eskridge 7 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)30–28
- Q2 0:49EMUTanner Knue 61 Yd pass from Preston Hutchinson (Chad Ryland Kick)30–21
- Q2 2:35EMUQuian Williams 32 Yd pass from Preston Hutchinson (Chad Ryland Kick)23–21
- Q2 8:12WMUJaylen Hall 49 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)16–21
- Q2 8:53EMUPreston Hutchinson 3 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)16–14
- Q2 13:58WMUJaylen Hall 50 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)9–14
- Q1 1:20EMUTanner Knue 28 Yd pass from Preston Hutchinson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–7
- Q1 2:59EMUChad Ryland 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:09WMULa'Darius Jefferson 5 Yd Run (Gavin Peddie Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassPreston Hutchinson 19/30, 315 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDarius Boone Jr. 25 CAR, 148 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHassan Beydoun 7 REC, 96 YDS
- PassKaleb Eleby 19/27, 304 YDS, 4 TD
- RushLa'Darius Jefferson 21 CAR, 130 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJaylen Hall 4 REC, 119 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsEMU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:02EMU +32%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
- Q2 0:49EMU +24%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Tanner Knue for 61 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
- Q3 9:54WMU +23%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 7 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
- Q4 13:50WMU +21%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds for a TD (Gavin Peddie KICK)
- Q2 2:35EMU +20%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 32 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
- Q4 5:42EMU +18%
BOONE, Darius rush for 2 yards to the WMU37 (HAYWARD, T.), PENALTY WMU offside (CARTER, Andre) 5 yards to the WMU34, NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Eastern Michigan vs. Western Michigan?
Eastern Michigan 53, Western Michigan 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| EMU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 533 | Total yards | 513 |
| 315 | Passing yards | 304 |
| 218 | Rushing yards | 209 |
| 24 | First downs | 23 |
| 9-16 | 3rd down | 5-8 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 19/27 |
| 10.5 | Yards per pass | 11.3 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 13-93 |
| 35:17 | Possession | 24:43 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:14EMUChad Ryland 20 Yd Field Goal 53–42
- Q4 5:42WMUSkyy Moore 5 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)50–42
- Q4 9:46EMUSamson Evans 4 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)50–35
- Q4 13:50WMULa'Darius Jefferson 3 Yd Run (Gavin Peddie Kick)43–35
- Q3 1:25EMUChad Ryland 25 Yd Field Goal 43–28
- Q3 4:05EMUChad Ryland 46 Yd Field Goal 40–28
- Q3 5:02EMUDarius Boone Jr. 4 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)37–28
- Q3 9:54WMUD'Wayne Eskridge 7 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)30–28
- Q2 0:49EMUTanner Knue 61 Yd pass from Preston Hutchinson (Chad Ryland Kick)30–21
- Q2 2:35EMUQuian Williams 32 Yd pass from Preston Hutchinson (Chad Ryland Kick)23–21
- Q2 8:12WMUJaylen Hall 49 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)16–21
- Q2 8:53EMUPreston Hutchinson 3 Yd Run (Chad Ryland Kick)16–14
- Q2 13:58WMUJaylen Hall 50 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Gavin Peddie Kick)9–14
- Q1 1:20EMUTanner Knue 28 Yd pass from Preston Hutchinson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)9–7
- Q1 2:59EMUChad Ryland 27 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 6:09WMULa'Darius Jefferson 5 Yd Run (Gavin Peddie Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WMU Elo 1561, EMU Elo 1336 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WMU -11.4 (78% to win) — 2.1 points clear of EMU's market line of -13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#29 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #19 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Western Michigan leads 33–17–1 · Western Michigan has won 3 straight · 49% have been one-possession games
| EMU | WMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#73) | CORE overall | +14.6 (#18) |
| +4 / +6 | offense / defense | +21 / +6 |
| 2.69 | points / drive | 3.52 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →