Hawai'i vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
HAWTeam statsWYO
- Q4 1:48WYOTrey Smith 2 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–31
- Q4 8:19WYOXazavian Valladay 6 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–24
- Q3 4:22WYOTrey Smith 1 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–17
- Q2 1:04HAWDae Dae Hunter 3 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–10
- Q1 9:55WYOJohn Hoyland 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:53WYOXazavian Valladay 18 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HAW played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WYO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 4.8
- PassChevan Cordeiro 11/26, 110 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMiles Reed 7 CAR, 54 YDS
- RecZion Bowens 1 REC, 47 YDS
- PassLevi Williams 9/18, 112 YDS
- RushXazavian Valladay 32 CAR, 163 YDS, 2 TD
- RecXazavian Valladay 2 REC, 32 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:22WYO +21%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q2 1:04HAW +19%
Dae Dae Hunter run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Shipley KICK)
- Q1 12:53WYO +16%
Xazavian Valladay run for 18 yds for a TD (John Hoyland KICK)
- Q3 9:13WYO +7%
Trey Smith run for 4 yds to the Hawa 15
- Q3 10:05HAW +6%
Chevan Cordeiro pass incomplete to Miles Reed
- Q4 10:07WYO +6%
Trey Smith run for 5 yds to the Hawa 6 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Hawai'i vs. Wyoming?
Hawai'i 7, Wyoming 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.
| HAW | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 233 | Total yards | 393 |
| 110 | Passing yards | 112 |
| 123 | Rushing yards | 281 |
| 12 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 11/26 | Comp/Att | 9/18 |
| 4.2 | Yards per pass | 6.2 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 5-47 |
| 21:45 | Possession | 38:15 |
Costliest call
Q1 2:35 WYO punt on 4th & 2 at HAW 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:48WYOTrey Smith 2 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–31
- Q4 8:19WYOXazavian Valladay 6 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–24
- Q3 4:22WYOTrey Smith 1 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)7–17
- Q2 1:04HAWDae Dae Hunter 3 Yd Run (Matthew Shipley Kick)7–10
- Q1 9:55WYOJohn Hoyland 30 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 12:53WYOXazavian Valladay 18 Yd Run (John Hoyland Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1541, HAW Elo 1502 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO -4 (62% to win) — 6.5 points clear of WYO's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #84 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Wyoming leads 17–12 · 45% have been one-possession games
| HAW | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.0 (#68) | CORE overall | +3.6 (#50) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | -6 / -10 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 2.29 | allowed / drive | 1.61 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →