Wake Forest vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsLOU
- Q3 2:37LOUTrey Smith 2 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)56–35
- Q3 3:41WAKEMatt Colburn 12 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)56–28
- Q3 6:40WAKECade Carney 1 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)49–28
- Q3 9:50LOUHassan Hall 12 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)42–28
- Q3 13:49WAKEMatt Colburn 56 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)42–21
- Q2 0:53LOUSeth Dawkins 19 Yd pass from Jawon Pass (Blanton Creque Kick)35–21
- Q2 9:20WAKECarlos Basham Jr. 23 Yd Fumble Return (Nick Sciba Kick)35–14
- Q2 9:34WAKEMatt Colburn 74 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)28–14
- Q2 9:50LOUTrey Smith 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)21–14
- Q1 2:29WAKEScotty Washington 9 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)21–7
- Q1 6:16WAKESam Hartman 12 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)14–7
- Q1 11:01WAKEJack Freudenthal 28 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:39LOUTrey Smith 52 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WAKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassSam Hartman 16/24, 223 YDS, 2 TD
- RushMatt Colburn 20 CAR, 243 YDS, 3 TD
- RecGreg Dortch 8 REC, 135 YDS
- PassJawon Pass 30/54, 358 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTrey Smith 13 CAR, 98 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTutu Atwell 8 REC, 132 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:34WAKE +21%
Matt Colburn run for 74 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q1 6:16WAKE +19%
Sam Hartman run for 12 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q1 2:29WAKE +17%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q2 9:50LOU +17%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)
- Q1 11:01WAKE +16%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 28 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
- Q1 12:39LOU +16%
Trey Smith run for 52 yds for a TD (Blanton Creque KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Louisville?
Wake Forest 56, Louisville 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WAKE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 591 | Total yards | 532 |
| 223 | Passing yards | 358 |
| 368 | Rushing yards | 174 |
| 28 | First downs | 31 |
| 7-13 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 30/54 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 7.7 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 3-35 | Penalties | 5-31 |
| 26:11 | Possession | 33:49 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:16 LOU punt on 4th & 1 at LOU 31. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 2:37LOUTrey Smith 2 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)56–35
- Q3 3:41WAKEMatt Colburn 12 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)56–28
- Q3 6:40WAKECade Carney 1 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)49–28
- Q3 9:50LOUHassan Hall 12 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)42–28
- Q3 13:49WAKEMatt Colburn 56 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)42–21
- Q2 0:53LOUSeth Dawkins 19 Yd pass from Jawon Pass (Blanton Creque Kick)35–21
- Q2 9:20WAKECarlos Basham Jr. 23 Yd Fumble Return (Nick Sciba Kick)35–14
- Q2 9:34WAKEMatt Colburn 74 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)28–14
- Q2 9:50LOUTrey Smith 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)21–14
- Q1 2:29WAKEScotty Washington 9 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)21–7
- Q1 6:16WAKESam Hartman 12 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)14–7
- Q1 11:01WAKEJack Freudenthal 28 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Nick Sciba Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:39LOUTrey Smith 52 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1419, WAKE Elo 1388 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -3.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #99 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →Louisville leads 7–3 · 30% have been one-possession games
| WAKE | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7 (#70) | CORE overall | -18.0 (#113) |
| -2 / -1 | offense / defense | -7 / +11 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 1.33 |
| 2.38 | allowed / drive | 3.79 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →