UCLA vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsCAL
- Q4 5:58UCLAB. McIlwain sacked by O. Isibor for -6 yds,B. McIlwain fumbled, recovered by UCLA K. Lucier-South,return for 38 yds, (J. Molson KICK)37–7
- Q4 7:04UCLAJJ Molson 42 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q4 13:36UCLAJoshua Kelley 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)27–7
- Q3 6:03UCLAJoshua Kelley 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)20–7
- Q3 8:38CALPatrick Laird 1 Yd Run (Greg Thomas Kick)13–7
- Q2 5:07UCLAJJ Molson 29 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 10:32UCLAJJ Molson 25 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:18UCLAJoshua Kelley 5 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDorian Thompson-Robinson 13/15, 141 YDS
- RushJoshua Kelley 30 CAR, 157 YDS, 3 TD
- RecCaleb Wilson 5 REC, 92 YDS
- PassBrandon McIlwain 22/40, 168 YDS, 2 INT
- RushPatrick Laird 17 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJeremiah Hawkins 4 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCLA up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:03UCLA +23%
Joshua Kelley run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q1 2:18UCLA +20%
Joshua Kelley run for 5 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q3 8:38CAL +19%
Patrick Laird run for 1 yd for a TD, (Greg Thomas KICK)
- Q2 10:32UCLA +11%
JJ Molson 25 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 8:33UCLA +11%
UCLA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 16
- Q4 15:00UCLA +10%
Joshua Kelley run for 9 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. California?
UCLA 37, California 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked CAL, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCLA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 348 | Total yards | 310 |
| 141 | Passing yards | 179 |
| 207 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 20 | First downs | 20 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-5 |
| 13/15 | Comp/Att | 23/42 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 4-30 | Penalties | 3-36 |
| 31:23 | Possession | 28:37 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:28 UCLA punt on 4th & 1 at UCLA 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.80 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:58UCLAB. McIlwain sacked by O. Isibor for -6 yds,B. McIlwain fumbled, recovered by UCLA K. Lucier-South,return for 38 yds, (J. Molson KICK)37–7
- Q4 7:04UCLAJJ Molson 42 Yd Field Goal 30–7
- Q4 13:36UCLAJoshua Kelley 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)27–7
- Q3 6:03UCLAJoshua Kelley 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)20–7
- Q3 8:38CALPatrick Laird 1 Yd Run (Greg Thomas Kick)13–7
- Q2 5:07UCLAJJ Molson 29 Yd Field Goal 13–0
- Q2 10:32UCLAJJ Molson 25 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:18UCLAJoshua Kelley 5 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1508, UCLA Elo 1363 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL -8.2 (72% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2018
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#9 of 109 in 2018 by biggest miss · #60 of 122 in 2018 by longest odds.
The 2018 upset archive →UCLA leads 58–35–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.5 (#67) | CORE overall | +0.3 (#62) |
| +2 / +3 | offense / defense | -14 / -14 |
| 1.89 | points / drive | 1.28 |
| 2.71 | allowed / drive | 1.16 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →