Northwestern vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NUTeam statsPSU
- Q4 7:22NUTrevor Siemian 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell PAT failed)29–6
- Q4 13:06NUJack Mitchell 23 Yd Field Goal 23–6
- Q4 14:49NUAnthony Walker 49 Yd Interception Return (Jack Mitchell PAT failed)20–6
- Q3 11:17PSUSam Ficken 36 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 0:05PSUSam Ficken 42 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 4:38NUTrevor Siemian 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:29NUTrevor Siemian 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTrevor Siemian 21/37, 258 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJustin Jackson 15 CAR, 50 YDS
- RecDanny Vitale 7 REC, 113 YDS
- PassChristian Hackenberg 22/45, 216 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBill Belton 8 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecDaeSean Hamilton 6 REC, 100 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:38NU +19%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
- Q1 9:29NU +18%
Trevor Siemian run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
- Q3 4:19NU +12%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete
- Q3 0:22NU +12%
Trevor Siemian pass incomplete to Tony Jones
- Q4 14:49NU +10%
Christian Hackenberg pass intercepted for a TD Anthony Walker return for 49 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell MISSED)
- Q3 11:17PSU +10%
Sam Ficken 36 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Penn State?
Northwestern 29, Penn State 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 361 | Total yards | 266 |
| 258 | Passing yards | 216 |
| 103 | Rushing yards | 50 |
| 17 | First downs | 14 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 3-17 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 22/46 |
| 7.0 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-75 | Penalties | 4-35 |
| 30:23 | Possession | 29:37 |
Costliest call
Q4 13:06 NU field goal on 4th & 2 at PSU 7. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:22NUTrevor Siemian 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell PAT failed)29–6
- Q4 13:06NUJack Mitchell 23 Yd Field Goal 23–6
- Q4 14:49NUAnthony Walker 49 Yd Interception Return (Jack Mitchell PAT failed)20–6
- Q3 11:17PSUSam Ficken 36 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 0:05PSUSam Ficken 42 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 4:38NUTrevor Siemian 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:29NUTrevor Siemian 1 Yd Run (Jack Mitchell Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 1640, NU Elo 1503 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -7.9 (71% to win) — 2.1 points clear of NU's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#17 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #54 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Penn State leads 16–6 · 27% have been one-possession games
| NU | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | points / drive | 1.38 |
| 1.85 | allowed / drive | 1.23 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 32% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →