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Win probability each staff’s calls added or cost against what most staffs do in the same spot. Graded at the snap against what most staffs do in the same spot, with the pregame spread built in. A good call that fails still grades as good. Which play was called, and defensive calls, are not graded.
Six families of decisions, added up. For each: the staff whose calls added the most, and the one whose calls cost the most.
run or pass on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down and in the red zone, against how this offense matched up with this defense
staff and quarterback together: how deep they threw against what the defense gave up, and whether third-down throws reached the sticks
go, kick or punt, the play called on a go, and two-point tries
tempo late and before halftime, clock-burning calls, timeouts unused or spent early, spikes, end-of-half possessions
who got the ball, against each player's measured efficiency, in-game form and workload
delay of game, too many men and substitution fouls, against a typical staff's rate
28 of 134 staffs are clearly above or below zero so far. The rest could be anywhere on their line — a rank is only a rank where the line does not cross zero.
Season win probability added vs the typical FBS staff, percentage points
Measured on 2024 and 2025: split each staff’s season into odd and even weeks and ask whether the two halves agree. For the whole grade the answer is some of it is the staff (a full season’s reliability of 0.40). Treat a single week as a description of that game, and a season as a description of that season.
Correlations with 95% intervals; n is staffs. Seasons up to 2025 are graded with a model fit on 2017-2025; 2026 is out of sample.
How to read it. +3.0 means the staff’s calls, taken together, left the team three points of win probability better off than the typical staff’s calls in the same situations would have. The ± is how sure that is: the run/pass mix is the least certain part, because what worked early in a game is thin evidence. The total is six families added up: play calling, passing strategy, fourth downs and two-point tries, clock and timeouts, personnel usage, and operations. Passing strategy is the staff and the quarterback together — the call sets the menu and the quarterback reads the coverage. Its depth part credits throwing where this offense beat this defense by more than usual, not throwing deep for its own sake: league-wide, deep throws look better partly because they are thrown when someone is open. Best counts fourth downs where the staff chose the option priced highest; bold counts calls that went against what most staffs do in that spot and priced out better for it.
Head coaches only. Where a coordinator calls the plays, the number describes the staff the head coach runs. *Pre-snap discipline — false starts and formation fouls — is shown and left out of the total: it belongs to the players as much as the sideline.
Each game’s recap carries the full list of graded calls.