Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PUR 1227
WIS 1502
Projected spread
PUR +3.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WIS
60% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
40%
PUR (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (PUR Elo 1227, WIS Elo 1502) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR +3.5 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWIS 60% · PUR 40%
Pick: WIS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
WIS2025 season · national rank shownPUR
254.8135th
Total yards / game
343.6102nd4.4135th
Yards / play
5.3Key matchups · Pro
- WIS pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. PUR pass defense (0.40 allowed) — edge PUR.
- PUR pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. WIS pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge WIS.
- WIS rush offense (0.04 PPA) vs. PUR rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge PUR.
FAQ
Who will win Wisconsin vs. Purdue?
Gridpex's model favors Wisconsin with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Wisconsin vs. Purdue?
The model projects Wisconsin by 3.5.
What time is Wisconsin vs. Purdue and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Ross-Ade Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Wisconsin at 60% to win, projecting Wisconsin by 3.5.