Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TEX 1926
MISS 2009
Projected spread
TEX +3.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
60% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
40%
TEX (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (TEX Elo 1926, MISS Elo 2009) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX +3.4 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMISS 60% · TEX 40%
Pick: MISS
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
MISS2025 season · national rank shownTEX
490.12nd
Total yards / game
388.769th6.715th
Yards / play
6.0Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. TEX pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge MISS.
- TEX pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. MISS pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge TEX.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. TEX rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge MISS.
FAQ
Who will win Ole Miss vs. Texas?
Gridpex's model favors Ole Miss with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ole Miss vs. Texas?
The model projects Ole Miss by 3.4.
What time is Ole Miss vs. Texas and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Ole Miss at 60% to win, projecting Ole Miss by 3.4.