Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where Kansas State gets at Oklahoma State: 17th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 114th at keeping everything in front of them. Oklahoma State projects no clear way in against Kansas State. Kansas State is also 37th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 130th.
How
KSUattacks
OKST
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · 43% this season, 1 game
KSU1.44#17 of 138OKST1.33#114 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected · 1 game in
KSU4.75#37 of 138OKST3.69#130 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected · 1 game in
KSU+0.36#28 of 138OKST+0.02#120 of 138
The two teams
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State throws it: Eric Morris's offenses have been pass-leaning across 3 seasons. The way in is 138th at running it, and they are 137th at throwing it.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+15.5%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is +8.0% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Oklahoma State has played 3 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 26% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Soft spots
- Offenserunning it+0.06#138 of 138
- Offensethrowing it+0.02#137 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points2.57#137 of 138
Kansas State
Kansas State is in year 1 under Collin Klein. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 17th at hitting chunk plays.
Kansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 17% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.44#17 of 138
- Defensethrowing it-0.25#20 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground25%#25 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1684, OKST Elo 1274 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -14 (81% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OKST104th2ndKSUKSU24th92ndOKSTThrough the air
OKST35th1stKSUKSU79th70thOKSTOn the ground
OKST58th48thKSUKSU8th64thOKSTStaying on the field
OKST124th12thKSUKSU2nd18thOKSTTaking care of it
OKST133rd76thKSUKSU74th76thOKST
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOklahoma State leads 43–26 · Kansas State has won 2 straight · 35% have been one-possession games
| OKST | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.3 (#104) | CORE overall | +16.0 (#25) |
| -11 / -2 | offense / defense | +5 / -11 |
| 1.72 | points / drive | 3.40 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | 0.00 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State?
Gridpex's model favors Kansas State with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State?
The model projects Kansas State by 14.0.
What time is Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →