Ohio vs. Sacramento State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ohio gets at Sacramento State: 14th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 77th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Sacramento State gets at Ohio: 49th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 105th at keeping everything in front of them. Ohio is also 32nd at running it, against a unit 83rd.
How
OHIOattacks
SAC
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
OHIO#14 of 138SAC#77 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
OHIO#32 of 138SAC#83 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
OHIO#26 of 138SAC#70 of 138
HowSACattacksOHIO
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
SAC#49 of 138OHIO#105 of 138
The two teams
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 105th at keeping everything in front of them.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#14projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#26projected
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#105projected
Sacramento State
Sacramento State is in year 1 under Alonzo Carter. No unit here sits far enough from the national average to build a plan around — nothing to lean on, and nothing obvious to attack.
Sacramento State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SAC Elo 1324, OHIO Elo 1320 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SAC -4.1 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OHIO131st99thSACSAC120th127thOHIOThrough the air
OHIO129th93rdSACSAC91st126thOHIOOn the ground
OHIO83rd75thSACSAC110th126thOHIOStaying on the field
OHIO46th37thSACSAC117th137thOHIOTaking care of it
OHIO21st76thSACSAC124th109thOHIO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OHIO | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#126) | CORE overall | -20.4 (#131) |
| -3 / +14 | offense / defense | -14 / +7 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 0.59 |
| 3.32 | allowed / drive | 2.75 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. Sacramento State?
Gridpex's model favors Sacramento State with a 60% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. Sacramento State?
The model projects Sacramento State by 4.1.
What time is Ohio vs. Sacramento State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Hornet Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →