← All games
Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds & Pick
Time TBD
Michigan StadiumConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MICH 1786
MSU 1409
Projected spread
MICH -17.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
MICH
91% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
91%
MICH (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (MICH Elo 1786, MSU Elo 1409) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH -17.9 (91% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelMSU 9% · MICH 91%
Pick: MICH
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMICH
Offense
0.12
PPA / play
0.1942%
Success rate
44%1.21
Explosiveness
1.173.75
Pts / opportunity
3.6465%
Power success
77%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.1245%
Success rate allowed
42%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.1314%
Havoc rate
17%17%
Stuff rate
18%Key matchups · Pro
- MICH pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. MSU pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge MSU.
- MICH rush offense (0.23 PPA) vs. MSU rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MICH.
- MSU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MICH pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge MSU.
FAQ
Who will win Michigan State vs. Michigan?
Gridpex's model favors Michigan with a 91% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Michigan State vs. Michigan?
The model projects Michigan by 17.9.
What time is Michigan State vs. Michigan and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Michigan Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Michigan at 91% to win, projecting Michigan by 17.9.