Kansas vs. Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Market vs our model
we are 3.2 toward 
KSU
| Market | Our model | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | KSU −7.5 | KSU −10.7 |
| KSU win | 71% | 74% |
Calibrated against results, not against the closing line. Read this as our confidence, not as an edge over the market.
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Kansas gets at Kansas State: 12th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 48th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Kansas State gets at Kansas: 11th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 131st at keeping everything in front of them. Kansas State is also 47th at throwing it, against a unit 99th.
How
KUattacksKSU
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
KU#12 of 138KSU#48 of 138
HowKSUattacksKU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KSU#11 of 138KU#131 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
KSU#47 of 138KU#99 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
KSU#42 of 138KU#94 of 138
The two teams
Kansas
Kansas runs it: Lance Leipold's offenses have been run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 6th in the push up front. The way in is 131st at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 126th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+0.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Kansas has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensethe push the line gets#6projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#23projected
- Offensefirst and second down#32projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#126projected
Kansas State
Kansas State is in year 1 under Collin Klein. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 122nd at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 119th at staying out of the backfield.
Kansas State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#11projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#33projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#122projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#119projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1684, KU Elo 1485 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -10.7 (74% to win) — 3.2 points clear of KSU's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
KU69th2ndKSUKSU24th63rdKUThrough the air
KU53rd1stKSUKSU79th67thKUOn the ground
KU63rd48thKSUKSU8th58thKUStaying on the field
KU78th12thKSUKSU2nd46thKUTaking care of it
KU104th76thKSUKSU74th76thKU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesKansas leads 65–53–5 · Kansas State has won 17 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| KU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.6 (#95) | CORE overall | +16.0 (#25) |
| -0 / +5 | offense / defense | +5 / -11 |
| 1.17 | points / drive | 3.40 |
| 3.46 | allowed / drive | 0.00 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Kansas vs. Kansas State?
Gridpex's model favors Kansas State with a 74% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Kansas vs. Kansas State?
The model projects Kansas State by 10.7.
What time is Kansas vs. Kansas State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →