Wyoming vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 2:55SDSULucky Sutton 50 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:10SDSUJordan Napier 7 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:52SDSUGabriel Plascencia 34 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:32SDSUByron Cardwell Jr. 24 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:29WYOSam Scott 3 Yd pass from Landon Sims (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKaden Anderson 12/24, 93 YDS, 3 INT
- RushLandon Sims 4 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecMichael Fitzgerald 3 REC, 46 YDS
- PassJayden Denegal 11/22, 194 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLucky Sutton 28 CAR, 158 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Brown 2 REC, 51 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:32SDSU +20%
Byron Cardwell Jr. 24 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
- Q1 10:29WYO +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 L.Sims pass complete short right to #22 S.Scott caught at SDSU00, for 3 yards to the SDSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:10SDSU +14%
Jordan Napier 7 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)
- Q2 10:52SDSU +9%
Gabriel Plascencia 34 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 11:19SDSU +5%
#93 H.Green punt 55 yards to the WYO14 #19 C.Coenen return 37 yards to the SDSU49 (#42 B.Anderson) PENALTY SDSU Holding (#42 B.Anderson) 10 yards from SDSU49 to SDSU39
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. San Diego State?
Wyoming 7, San Diego State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SDSU) was correct.
| WYO | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 185 | Total yards | 390 |
| 96 | Passing yards | 194 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 196 |
| 9 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/27 | Comp/Att | 11/22 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 8.8 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-41 | Penalties | 8-78 |
| 29:33 | Possession | 30:27 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:29 SDSU punt on 4th & 1 at SDSU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:55SDSULucky Sutton 50 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:10SDSUJordan Napier 7 Yd Run (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–17
- Q2 10:52SDSUGabriel Plascencia 34 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:32SDSUByron Cardwell Jr. 24 Yd pass from Jayden Denegal (Gabriel Plascencia Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:29WYOSam Scott 3 Yd pass from Landon Sims (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1579, WYO Elo 1412 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU -9.1 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 21–19 · San Diego State has won 4 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| WYO | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#111) | CORE overall | +11.6 (#35) |
| -18 / -3 | offense / defense | -2 / -14 |
| 1.07 | points / drive | 1.88 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 1.14 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →