Wyoming vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsHAW
- Q3 11:36HAWCam Barfield 41 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–27
- Q2 2:28HAWKansei Matsuzawa 47 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 4:47HAWJackson Harris 78 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–17
- Q2 7:33HAWKansei Matsuzawa 47 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:52HAWCam Barfield 19 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:58WYOJones Thomas 50 Yd Interception Return (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HAW lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassMason Drube 17/32, 179 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDamashja Harris 5 CAR, 17 YDS
- RecJohn Michael Gyllenborg 6 REC, 39 YDS
- PassMicah Alejado 17/24, 289 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushCam Barfield 15 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJackson Harris 4 REC, 153 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsHAW up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 3:52HAW +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short left to #0 C.Barfield caught at Wyo18, for 19 yards to the Wyo00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 8:58WYO +18%
Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass intercepted by #23 J.Thomas at Hawaii50 #23 J.Thomas return 50 yards to the Hawaii00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 4:47HAW +16%
Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short middle to #9 J.Harris caught at Hawaii39, for 78 yards to the Wyo00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 7:33HAW +11%
#17 K.Matsuzawa field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD
- Q2 2:28HAW +7%
#17 K.Matsuzawa field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Hawai'i?
Wyoming 7, Hawai'i 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.
| WYO | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| 256 | Total yards | 417 |
| 202 | Passing yards | 289 |
| 54 | Rushing yards | 128 |
| 16 | First downs | 14 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 20/37 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 11.6 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 9-95 |
| 29:02 | Possession | 30:58 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:51 HAW field goal on 4th & 1 at WYO 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 11:36HAWCam Barfield 41 Yd Run (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–27
- Q2 2:28HAWKansei Matsuzawa 47 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 4:47HAWJackson Harris 78 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–17
- Q2 7:33HAWKansei Matsuzawa 47 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 3:52HAWCam Barfield 19 Yd pass from Micah Alejado (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:58WYOJones Thomas 50 Yd Interception Return (Erik Sandvik Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HAW Elo 1421, WYO Elo 1333 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HAW -5.9 (66% to win) — 2.6 points clear of WYO's market line of -8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 17–12 · 45% have been one-possession games
| WYO | HAW | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#111) | CORE overall | -6.2 (#82) |
| -18 / -3 | offense / defense | +1 / +7 |
| 1.07 | points / drive | 2.21 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.06 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +14 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →