| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WYO | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| HAW | 7 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1421, WYO Elo 1333) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW -5.9 (67% to win) — 2.6 points of value on WYO versus the market line of -8.5.
HAW up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Wyoming 7, Hawai'i 27.
Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had HAW pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(09:09) Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass intercepted by #23 J.Thomas at Hawaii50 #23 J.Thomas return 50 yards to the Hawaii00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:58 #47 E.Sandvik kick attempt good (H: #43 G.Helm, LS: #52 C.York)
(05:02) Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete short middle to #9 J.Harris caught at Hawaii39, for 78 yards to the Wyo00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:47, 1ST DOWN #17 K.Matsuzawa kick attempt good (H: #18 C.Freeman, LS: #33 J.Mowrey)
(03:53) Shotgun #12 M.Alejado pass complete deep left to #9 J.Harris caught at Wyo21, for 46 yards to the Wyo21 (#20 D.Miller), 1ST DOWN
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