Wisconsin vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WISTeam statsMICH
- Q4 2:43WISNathanial Vakos 39 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q4 9:24MICHJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–24
- Q3 4:11MICHDonaven McCulley 29 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–17
- Q2 5:43MICHDominic Zvada 40 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 6:02MICHJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:10WISDilin Jones 5 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassHunter Simmons 18/29, 177 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDilin Jones 17 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecVinny Anthony II 9 REC, 97 YDS
- PassBryce Underwood 19/28, 270 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJustice Haynes 19 CAR, 117 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDonaven McCulley 6 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMICH up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Wisconsin vs. Michigan?
Wisconsin 10, Michigan 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MICH) was correct.
| WIS | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 252 | Total yards | 445 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 270 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 175 |
| 13 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/29 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 2.7 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 30:57 | Possession | 29:03 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:43 MICH punt on 4th & 1 at MICH 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.05 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:43WISNathanial Vakos 39 Yd Field Goal 10–24
- Q4 9:24MICHJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–24
- Q3 4:11MICHDonaven McCulley 29 Yd pass from Bryce Underwood (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–17
- Q2 5:43MICHDominic Zvada 40 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 6:02MICHJustice Haynes 1 Yd Run (Dominic Zvada Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:10WISDilin Jones 5 Yd Run (Nathanial Vakos Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1848, WIS Elo 1543 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH -14.6 (83% to win) — 2.9 points clear of WIS's market line of -17.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 53–17–1 · Michigan has won 2 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| WIS | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.3 (#72) | CORE overall | +17.4 (#22) |
| -11 / -8 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 1.23 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 2.09 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →