Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WMUTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 1:56M-OHDom Dzioban 51 Yd Field Goal 17–26
- Q4 4:40M-OHDequan Finn 18 Yd Run (Dequan Finn Pass to Kam Perry for Two-Point Conversion)17–23
- Q4 10:31M-OHBrian Shane 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–15
- Q3 4:10WMUPalmer Domschke 42 Yd Field Goal 17–9
- Q2 0:52WMUMichael Brescia 2 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–9
- Q2 2:36M-OHDom Dzioban 29 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 5:17WMUTalique Williams 43 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:54M-OHDom Dzioban 24 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:28M-OHDom Dzioban 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassBroc Lowry 16/28, 172 YDS, 1 TD
- RushBroc Lowry 20 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecTalique Williams 5 REC, 71 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDequan Finn 18/30, 260 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJordan Brunson 13 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecKam Perry 4 REC, 98 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 4:40M-OH +47%
Shotgun #1 D.Finn rush left for 18 yards gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #8 K.Perry pass attempt Successful. The previous play is under automatic review - "" #8…
- Q4 10:31M-OH +31%
Brian Shane 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- Q2 0:52WMU +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 M.Brescia rush right for 2 yards gain to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 5:17WMU +24%
Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #0 T.Williams caught at Mia00, for 43 yards to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 7:07WMU +21%
#25 R.Millmore punt 26 yards to the Mia12 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at Mia12
- Q4 7:02M-OH +19%
Shotgun #1 D.Finn pass incomplete short left to #8 K.Perry thrown to Mia10 QB hurried by #9 J.Camden
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH)?
Western Michigan 17, Miami (OH) 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
| WMU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 408 |
| 172 | Passing yards | 260 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 17 | First downs | 19 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 18/30 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 8.7 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 2-15 |
| 29:21 | Possession | 30:39 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:38 M-OH punt on 4th & 2 at WMU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56M-OHDom Dzioban 51 Yd Field Goal 17–26
- Q4 4:40M-OHDequan Finn 18 Yd Run (Dequan Finn Pass to Kam Perry for Two-Point Conversion)17–23
- Q4 10:31M-OHBrian Shane 3 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)17–15
- Q3 4:10WMUPalmer Domschke 42 Yd Field Goal 17–9
- Q2 0:52WMUMichael Brescia 2 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)14–9
- Q2 2:36M-OHDom Dzioban 29 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q2 5:17WMUTalique Williams 43 Yd pass from Broc Lowry (Palmer Domschke Kick)7–6
- Q2 14:54M-OHDom Dzioban 24 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 11:28M-OHDom Dzioban 44 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1449, WMU Elo 1379 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -5.2 (65% to win) — 2.7 points clear of M-OH's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 24–21–1 · 35% have been one-possession games
| WMU | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.8 (#62) | CORE overall | -6.0 (#81) |
| -5 / -7 | offense / defense | -7 / -1 |
| 2.04 | points / drive | 1.96 |
| 1.60 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -13 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →