Yager StadiumConference gameClosing line: M-OH -2.5 · M-OH covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| M-OH | 3 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 26 |
Team stats
WMUthis game · better side highlightedM-OH
316
Total yards
408172
Passing yards
260144
Rushing yards
14817
First downs
198-17 · 47%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
M-OH 1449
WMU 1379
Projected spread
M-OH -5.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
M-OH
65% to win
Market spread
M-OH -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
M-OH
2.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
65%
M-OH · market 54%
Our model blends Elo ratings (M-OH Elo 1449, WMU Elo 1379) plus home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -5.2 (65% to win) — 2.7 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of -2.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
M-OH (top)WMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: M-OH 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. M-OH pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge M-OH.
- WMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. M-OH rush defense (0.05 allowed) — edge WMU.
- M-OH pass offense (0.18 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge M-OH.
Drive-by-drive
WMU 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →M-OH 6/11 scoring drives
M-OHFG7 pl, 48 yds· own 25Q1
WMUDOWNS8 pl, 37 yds· own 37Q1
M-OHFG13 pl, 68 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
WMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Miami (OH)?
Western Michigan 17, Miami (OH) 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had M-OH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.