Sat, Oct 25, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| M-OH | 3 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (M-OH Elo 1449, WMU Elo 1379) plus home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -5.2 (65% to win) — 2.7 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of -2.5.
WMU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Western Michigan 17, Miami (OH) 26.
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had M-OH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(05:52) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep left to #18 A.Chenault caught at WMU47, for 45 yards to the Mia43 (#5 L.Evans), 1ST DOWN
(05:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete deep middle to #0 T.Williams caught at Mia00, for 43 yards to the Mia00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:17, 1ST DOWN #20 P.Domschke kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 R.Todd)
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Brunson rush left for 46 yards gain to the WMU29 (#3 T.Hallock), 1ST DOWN
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