Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)Closing line: ILL -27.5 · ILL covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ILL | 3 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 38 |
Team stats
WMUthis game · better side highlightedILL
204
Total yards
35891
Passing yards
196113
Rushing yards
16212
First downs
203-14 · 21%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ILL 1642
WMU 1312
Projected spread
ILL -15.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
ILL
88% to win
Market spread
ILL -27.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
WMU
11.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
ILL · market 94%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ILL Elo 1642, WMU Elo 1312) plus home-field advantage. That projects ILL -15.6 (88% to win) — 11.9 points of value on WMU versus the market line of -27.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ILL (top)WMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ILL 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ILL pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. WMU pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ILL.
- WMU pass offense (0.10 PPA) vs. ILL pass defense (0.32 allowed) — edge ILL.
- WMU rush offense (0.14 PPA) vs. ILL rush defense (0.07 allowed) — edge WMU.
Drive-by-drive
WMU 0/11 scoring drives← own end zone →ILL 6/11 scoring drives
ILLFG14 pl, 65 yds· own 25Q1
WMUPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1
ILLPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 29Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ILL up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ILL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Michigan vs. Illinois?
Western Michigan 0, Illinois 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ILL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.