Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsJXST
- Q4 0:00JXSTGarrison Rippa 28 Yd Field Goal 34–37
- Q4 8:19WKUJack Cassidy 41 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 12:28JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q3 7:16WKUJohn Cannon 42 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q3 11:22JXSTCaden Creel 70 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)28–31
- Q2 0:15JXSTDeondre Johnson 22 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)28–24
- Q2 1:52WKULa'Vell Wright 39 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)28–17
- Q2 6:18JXSTPearson Baldwin 2 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)21–17
- Q2 9:33JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 14:53WKUK.D. Hutchinson 13 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)21–7
- Q1 6:15WKULa'Vell Wright 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:28WKURodney Tisdale Jr. 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:13JXSTCam Cook 14 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRodney Tisdale Jr. 17/24, 180 YDS, 1 INT
- RushLa'Vell Wright 14 CAR, 116 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMoussa Barry 3 REC, 68 YDS
- PassCaden Creel 12/19, 204 YDS, 2 TD
- RushCaden Creel 20 CAR, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeondre Johnson 5 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:06JXST +28%
PENALTY JSU False Start (#11 D.Johnson) 5 yards from WKU45 to WKU50. NO PLAY
- Q4 12:28JXST +25%
#37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q3 11:22JXST +25%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 70 yards gain to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:18WKU +24%
#18 C.Maynard punt 35 yards to the JSU24 #1 C.Nix return 15 yards to the JSU39 (#9 D.Oliver; #22 J.Donald)
- Q2 0:15JXST +23%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep right to #11 D.Johnson caught at WKU00, for 22 yards to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 1:52WKU +22%
Shotgun #11 L.Wright rush middle for 39 yards gain to the JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State?
Western Kentucky 34, Jacksonville State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| WKU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 515 |
| 180 | Passing yards | 222 |
| 204 | Rushing yards | 293 |
| 21 | First downs | 24 |
| 4-10 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/25 | Comp/Att | 13/20 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-63 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 28:36 | Possession | 31:24 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:28 JXST field goal on 4th & 2 at WKU 9. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00JXSTGarrison Rippa 28 Yd Field Goal 34–37
- Q4 8:19WKUJack Cassidy 41 Yd Field Goal 34–34
- Q4 12:28JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q3 7:16WKUJohn Cannon 42 Yd Field Goal 31–31
- Q3 11:22JXSTCaden Creel 70 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)28–31
- Q2 0:15JXSTDeondre Johnson 22 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)28–24
- Q2 1:52WKULa'Vell Wright 39 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)28–17
- Q2 6:18JXSTPearson Baldwin 2 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)21–17
- Q2 9:33JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 21–10
- Q2 14:53WKUK.D. Hutchinson 13 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)21–7
- Q1 6:15WKULa'Vell Wright 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:28WKURodney Tisdale Jr. 1 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:13JXSTCam Cook 14 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1501, WKU Elo 1401 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -6.4 (68% to win) — 7.9 points clear of JXST's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#83) | CORE overall | -10.7 (#99) |
| -6 / +0 | offense / defense | -4 / +7 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →