Western Kentucky
8-3·Conference USA· Elo 1401
34–37
Final
Jacksonville State
7-4·Conference USA· Elo 1501
AmFirst StadiumConference gameClosing line: WKU +-1.5 · JXST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 14 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 34 |
| JXST | 7 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
Team stats
WKUthis game · better side highlightedJXST
384
Total yards
515180
Passing yards
222204
Rushing yards
29321
First downs
244-10 · 40%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JXST 1501
WKU 1401
Projected spread
JXST -6.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
68% to win
Market spread
JXST +1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
7.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
68%
JXST · market 46%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JXST Elo 1501, WKU Elo 1401) plus home-field advantage. That projects JXST -6.4 (68% to win) — 7.9 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
JXST (top)WKU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JXST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. WKU rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge JXST.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. JXST rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge JXST.
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge JXST.
Drive-by-drive
WKU 6/12 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 7/12 scoring drives
JXSTTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
WKUTD7 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1
JXSTFUM2 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
JXST win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State?
Western Kentucky 34, Jacksonville State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.