West Virginia vs. Kansas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsKU
- Q4 12:52KULeshon Williams 62 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–41
- Q4 14:31WVUJaylen Henderson 13 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)10–34
- Q3 6:43KUBoden Groen 7 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)3–34
- Q3 14:48KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 94 Yd Kickoff Return (Laith Marjan Kick)3–27
- Q2 0:00KULaith Marjan 44 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 2:11KULeshon Williams 39 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)3–17
- Q2 3:43WVUKade Hensley 26 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 10:25KULaith Marjan 42 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:57KULevi Wentz 41 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNicco Marchiol 15/27, 126 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJaylen Henderson 7 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCyncir Bowers 2 REC, 26 YDS
- PassJalon Daniels 12/24, 138 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLeshon Williams 19 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecLevi Wentz 1 REC, 41 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Kansas?
West Virginia 10, Kansas 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
| WVU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 323 | Total yards | 388 |
| 142 | Passing yards | 146 |
| 181 | Rushing yards | 242 |
| 18 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-15 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 17/31 | Comp/Att | 13/26 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 5.6 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-30 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 26:10 | Possession | 33:50 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:43 KU punt on 4th & 2 at KU 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:52KULeshon Williams 62 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)10–41
- Q4 14:31WVUJaylen Henderson 13 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)10–34
- Q3 6:43KUBoden Groen 7 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)3–34
- Q3 14:48KUEmmanuel Henderson Jr. 94 Yd Kickoff Return (Laith Marjan Kick)3–27
- Q2 0:00KULaith Marjan 44 Yd Field Goal 3–20
- Q2 2:11KULeshon Williams 39 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)3–17
- Q2 3:43WVUKade Hensley 26 Yd Field Goal 3–10
- Q2 10:25KULaith Marjan 42 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:57KULevi Wentz 41 Yd pass from Jalon Daniels (Laith Marjan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KU Elo 1613, WVU Elo 1481 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KU -7.7 (71% to win) — 5.3 points clear of WVU's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWest Virginia leads 11–3 · 21% have been one-possession games
| WVU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.6 (#98) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#57) |
| -11 / -1 | offense / defense | +10 / +6 |
| 1.51 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.60 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →