| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| KU | 7 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (KU Elo 1613, WVU Elo 1481) plus home-field advantage. That projects KU -7.7 (72% to win) — 5.3 points of value on WVU versus the market line of -13.
KU up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
West Virginia 10, Kansas 41.
Yes — the model's pick (KU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had KU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jalon Daniels pass complete to Levi Wentz for 41 yds for a TD (Laith Marjan KICK)
Leshon Williams 62 Yd Run (Laith Marjan Kick)
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the WVU 5
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