Sat, Nov 15, 6:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| ASU | 0 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 25 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1617, WVU Elo 1352) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -13 (83% to win) — 3.0 points of value on ASU versus the market line of -10.
ASU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
West Virginia 23, Arizona State 25.
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete short right to #23 C.Bowers caught at WVU05, for 90 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:37, 1ST DOWN #18 C.Jones Jr rush attempt failed
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete short middle to #16 J.Weimer caught at WVU42, for 75 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:53, 1ST DOWN #25 K.Hensley kick attempt good (H: #41 O.Straw, LS: #38 M.Moss)
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Sims pass complete short middle to #3 R.Brown caught at WVU26, for 33 yards to the WVU00 QB hurried by #5 F.Perry TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:41, 1ST DOWN #35 J.Gomez kick attempt good (H: #31 K.Floyd, LS: #39 T.Wigglesworth)
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