West Virginia vs. Arizona State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WVUTeam statsASU
- Q4 2:44ASUJesus Gomez 49 Yd Field Goal 23–25
- Q4 6:37WVUCyncir Bowers 90 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–22
- Q4 10:41WVUCurtis Jones Jr. 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)17–22
- Q2 1:41ASURaleek Brown 33 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–22
- Q2 7:53WVUJeff Weimer 75 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)10–15
- Q2 8:04ASUDerek Eusebio 19 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Pass to Cameron Harpole for Two-Point Conversion)3–15
- Q2 11:17ASUChamon Metayer 6 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:41WVUKade Hensley 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassScotty Fox Jr. 19/31, 353 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushCyncir Bowers 13 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecJeff Weimer 3 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJeff Sims 19/28, 207 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJeff Sims 17 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecDerek Eusebio 6 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:37WVU +40%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete short right to #23 C.Bowers caught at WVU05, for 90 yards to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN #18 C.Jones Jr rush attempt fa…
- Q1 13:06ASU +34%
#34 M.McKenzie punt 34 yards to the WVU32 fair catch by #29 P.Fox at WVU32
- Q4 1:15ASU +33%
Kneel down by Arizona St. at ASU45 for loss of 6 yards
- Q4 2:17WVU +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass complete short right to #16 J.Weimer caught at WVU37, for 12 yards to the WVU38 (#44 K.Elliott), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ASU Holding dec…
- Q4 2:44ASU +25%
#35 J.Gomez field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD
- Q4 8:06ASU +14%
#31 K.Floyd punt 54 yards to the WVU10 #29 P.Fox return 17 yards to the WVU27 (#43 K.Jackson)
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Arizona State?
West Virginia 23, Arizona State 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
| WVU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| 421 | Total yards | 330 |
| 353 | Passing yards | 207 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 123 |
| 20 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/31 | Comp/Att | 19/28 |
| 11.4 | Yards per pass | 7.4 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-70 | Penalties | 5-31 |
| 27:26 | Possession | 32:34 |
Costliest call
Q1 13:06 ASU punt on 4th & 1 at ASU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:44ASUJesus Gomez 49 Yd Field Goal 23–25
- Q4 6:37WVUCyncir Bowers 90 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)23–22
- Q4 10:41WVUCurtis Jones Jr. 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)17–22
- Q2 1:41ASURaleek Brown 33 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–22
- Q2 7:53WVUJeff Weimer 75 Yd pass from Scotty Fox Jr. (Kade Hensley Kick)10–15
- Q2 8:04ASUDerek Eusebio 19 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Pass to Cameron Harpole for Two-Point Conversion)3–15
- Q2 11:17ASUChamon Metayer 6 Yd pass from Jeff Sims (Jesus Gomez Kick)3–7
- Q1 8:41WVUKade Hensley 29 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ASU Elo 1617, WVU Elo 1352 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ASU -13 (81% to win) — 3.0 points clear of ASU's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WVU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.6 (#98) | CORE overall | +8.2 (#44) |
| -11 / -1 | offense / defense | +2 / -6 |
| 1.51 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →