Mountain America StadiumConference gameClosing line: ASU -10 · WVU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WVU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| ASU | 0 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 25 |
Team stats
WVUthis game · better side highlightedASU
421
Total yards
330353
Passing yards
20768
Rushing yards
12320
First downs
186-15 · 40%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ASU 1617
WVU 1352
Projected spread
ASU -13
incl. home edge
Model pick
ASU
83% to win
Market spread
ASU -10
sportsbook line
Model edge
ASU
3.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
83%
ASU · market 76%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ASU Elo 1617, WVU Elo 1352) plus home-field advantage. That projects ASU -13 (83% to win) — 3.0 points of value on ASU versus the market line of -10.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ASU (top)WVU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ASU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ASU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. WVU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge ASU.
- ASU pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. WVU pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge WVU.
- WVU rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. ASU rush defense (0.03 allowed) — edge ASU.
Drive-by-drive
WVU 4/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ASU 4/12 scoring drives
ASUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
WVUFG11 pl, 57 yds· own 32Q1
ASUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ASU up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
ASU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of West Virginia vs. Arizona State?
West Virginia 23, Arizona State 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ASU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ASU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.