Weber State vs. Arizona: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Weber State0-1

03

Arizona1-0

▸0048

Final

Arizona Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WEBE	0	0	0	3	3
ARIZ	24	10	14	0	48

WEBETeam statsARIZ

184Total yards556

68Pass406

116Rush150

11First downs31

2-133rd down5-10

2Turnovers0

27:21Possession32:39

How the model called it

Market line

ARIZ −31.5

Against the number

ARIZ covered

line ARIZ −31.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ARIZ 100%50%WEBE 100%

Kickoff144 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ARIZ (top)WEBE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARIZ 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ARIZ −31.5

Closing total

56.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WEBE 3 – 48 ARIZ

Leaders

Weber State

• PassJackson Gilkey 10/24, 68 YDS, 2 INT
• RushJackson Gilkey 9 CAR, 40 YDS
• RecNoah Bennee 2 REC, 20 YDS

Arizona

• PassNoah Fifita 17/22, 373 YDS, 5 TD
• RushIsmail Mahdi 9 CAR, 51 YDS
• RecJavin Whatley 5 REC, 168 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.7sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.42

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ARIZ up 45 entering the 4th quarter. Across 124 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ARIZ went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WOklahoma vs Maine59-14WSan Diego vs Stetson45-6WSMU vs Navy59-14WGeorgia vs Ball State45-3WUAB vs Tulsa59-21

Fourth downs

17 calls

ARIZ gave up 0.1 points to the model on fourth down.WEBE 8/10 · ARIZ 6/7 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Weber State vs. Arizona?

Weber State 3, Arizona 48.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ARIZ) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WEBE

ARIZ

35%

Success rate

52%

-0.23

EPA / pass

0.65

0.00

EPA / rush

0.29

37%

Early-down success

54%

30%

Pass success

64%

41%

Rush success

44%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

27%

Stuffed rush rate

19%

58%

Pass rate

37%

6.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.9

WEBE

6.7 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

ARIZ

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WEBE		ARIZ
184	Total yards	556
68	Passing yards	406
116	Rushing yards	150
11	First downs	31
2-13	3rd down	5-10
0-0	4th down	1-1
10/24	Comp/Att	20/28
2.8	Yards per pass	14.5
3.7	Yards per rush	3.8
2	Turnovers	0
7-68	Penalties	10-80
27:21	Possession	32:39

Fourth downs

17 calls

WEBE

8/10 with the model

nothing given up

ARIZ

6/7 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (17)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WEBE 0/7 scoring drives← own end zone →ARIZ 0/7 scoring drives

ARIZTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

WEBEPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1

WEBEPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q1

ARIZFG7 pl, 46 yds· own 40Q1

ARIZTD2 pl, 12 yds· opp 12Q1

WEBEPUNT5 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1

WEBEINT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

WEBEPUNT4 pl, 13 yds· own 25Q2

ARIZTD7 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2

ARIZEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 6Q2

WEBEMISS10 pl, 61 yds· own 20Q3

ARIZFG14 pl, 74 yds· own 13Q1

WEBEPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q2

ARIZMISS11 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q4

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →