Stetson vs. San Diego: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Stetson2-7
San Diego6-3
▸Final
Torero StadiumConference game
STETTeam statsSAN
278Total yards564
198Pass362
80Rush202
18First downs29
3-143rd down7-11
3Turnovers0
24:45Possession35:15
- Q4 0:48STETTrey Clark 52 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–45
- Q4 14:57SAN Aidan Lehman 27 Yd Field Goal 0–45
- Q3 11:25SAN Christopher Hall 27 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:38SAN Josh Heverly 23 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:39SAN Ja'seem Reed 15 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:44SAN Ja'seem Reed 30 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:53SAN Ja'seem Reed 24 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:35SAN Cole Monach 9 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
SAN −27.5
Against the number
SAN covered
line SAN −27.5
What the numbers say
- STET played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and SAN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.5
Kickoff147 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
SAN (top)STET (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SAN 100%
Closing line
SAN −27.5
Closing total
54.5
Model line
—
Actual result
STET 6 – 45 SAN
Stetson
- PassKael Alexander 19/33, 148 YDS, 2 INT
- RushTrey Clark 8 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDalton Bailey 8 REC, 61 YDS
San Diego
- PassGrant Sergent 20/28, 311 YDS, 6 TD
- RushIsaiah Smith 17 CAR, 110 YDS
- RecJa'seem Reed 5 REC, 121 YDS, 3 TD
26.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
135
Points / snap
0.38
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSAN up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 169 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
SAN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Stetson vs. San Diego?
Stetson 6, San Diego 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SAN ) was correct.
STET
SAN
34%
Success rate
53%
-0.23
EPA / pass
0.90
0.12
EPA / rush
0.15
32%
Early-down success
52%
33%
Pass success
56%
38%
Rush success
50%
10%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
18%
48%
Stuffed rush rate
12%
69%
Pass rate
50%
7.8
Avg 3rd-down distance
4.5
STET
7.8 yards to go on 3rd down
67 scrimmage snaps
SAN
4.5 yards to go on 3rd down
68 scrimmage snaps
| STET | SAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 278 | Total yards | 564 |
| 198 | Passing yards | 362 |
| 80 | Rushing yards | 202 |
| 18 | First downs | 29 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 5-6 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/44 | Comp/Att | 22/31 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 3.6 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 24:45 | Possession | 35:15 |
STET
7/9 with the model
−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
SAN
3/3 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q4 9:12 STET go for it on 4th & 10 at SAN 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.27 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishSTET 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SAN 7/11 scoring drives
STETPUNT9 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q1
SAN TD8 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q1
STETPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q1
SAN TD5 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ1
STETPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 13Q1
SAN TD1 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q1
STETINT6 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q1
SAN TD5 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q2
STETINT13 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q2
SAN TD12 pl, 95 yds· own 5Q2
STETEND3 pl, 7 yds· own 30Q2
SAN TD8 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q3
STETINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
SAN MISS8 pl, 49 yds· own 42Q3
STETDOWNS8 pl, 43 yds· own 20Q3
SAN FG10 pl, 53 yds· own 37Q3
STETPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q4
SAN MISS7 pl, 29 yds· own 40Q4
STETMISS13 pl, 42 yds· own 31Q4
SAN PUNT5 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q4
STETTD5 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q4
SAN Uncateg1 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q4
- Q4 0:48STETTrey Clark 52 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–45
- Q4 14:57SAN Aidan Lehman 27 Yd Field Goal 0–45
- Q3 11:25SAN Christopher Hall 27 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–42
- Q2 0:38SAN Josh Heverly 23 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–35
- Q2 10:39SAN Ja'seem Reed 15 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–28
- Q1 0:44SAN Ja'seem Reed 30 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:53SAN Ja'seem Reed 24 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:35SAN Cole Monach 9 Yd pass from Grant Sergent (Aidan Lehman Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →