Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WAKETeam statsMSST
- Q4 2:15WAKETy Clark III 62 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)43–29
- Q4 4:07MSSTKelley Jones Defensive PAT Conversion36–29
- Q4 4:07WAKERobby Ashford 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert PAT blocked)36–27
- Q4 10:17MSSTSanfrisco Magee 42 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)30–27
- Q3 0:00MSSTKamario Taylor 1 Yd Run (Kamario Taylor Pass to Seydou Traore for Two-Point Conversion)30–20
- Q3 4:19WAKERobby Ashford 2 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)30–12
- Q3 9:24MSSTKyle Ferrie 36 Yd Field Goal 23–12
- Q3 14:06WAKEJack Foley 64 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–9
- Q2 6:15MSSTKyle Ferrie 23 Yd Field Goal 15–9
- Q1 3:49WAKEKamrean Johnson 14 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)15–6
- Q1 7:12MSSTKyle Ferrie 50 Yd Field Goal 8–6
- Q1 12:33WAKEKoredell Bartley 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Sawyer Racanelli Pass to Eni Falayi for Two-Point Conversion)8–3
- Q1 12:55MSSTKyle Ferrie 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassRobby Ashford 20/33, 303 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushTy Clark III 17 CAR, 91 YDS
- RecTy Clark III 3 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKamario Taylor 13/22, 241 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKamario Taylor 18 CAR, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrenen Thompson 4 REC, 106 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State?
Wake Forest 43, Mississippi State 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
| WAKE | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 451 | Total yards | 408 |
| 303 | Passing yards | 294 |
| 148 | Rushing yards | 114 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 20/33 | Comp/Att | 16/27 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-76 | Penalties | 7-60 |
| 31:35 | Possession | 28:25 |
- Q4 2:15WAKETy Clark III 62 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)43–29
- Q4 4:07MSSTKelley Jones Defensive PAT Conversion36–29
- Q4 4:07WAKERobby Ashford 1 Yd Run (Connor Calvert PAT blocked)36–27
- Q4 10:17MSSTSanfrisco Magee 42 Yd pass from Kamario Taylor (Kyle Ferrie Kick)30–27
- Q3 0:00MSSTKamario Taylor 1 Yd Run (Kamario Taylor Pass to Seydou Traore for Two-Point Conversion)30–20
- Q3 4:19WAKERobby Ashford 2 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)30–12
- Q3 9:24MSSTKyle Ferrie 36 Yd Field Goal 23–12
- Q3 14:06WAKEJack Foley 64 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Run for Two-Point Conversion)23–9
- Q2 6:15MSSTKyle Ferrie 23 Yd Field Goal 15–9
- Q1 3:49WAKEKamrean Johnson 14 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)15–6
- Q1 7:12MSSTKyle Ferrie 50 Yd Field Goal 8–6
- Q1 12:33WAKEKoredell Bartley 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Sawyer Racanelli Pass to Eni Falayi for Two-Point Conversion)8–3
- Q1 12:55MSSTKyle Ferrie 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1491, WAKE Elo 1508 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects MSST +0.7 (49% to win) — 3.7 points clear of WAKE's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WAKE | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.3 (#42) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#64) |
| -4 / -13 | offense / defense | -1 / -1 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 2.07 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →