Bank of America StadiumNeutral siteClosing line: MSST -3 · WAKE covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAKE | 15 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 43 |
| MSST | 6 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 29 |
Team stats
WAKEthis game · better side highlightedMSST
451
Total yards
408303
Passing yards
294148
Rushing yards
11423
First downs
209-15 · 60%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MSST 1491
WAKE 1508
Projected spread
MSST +0.7
neutral site
Model pick
WAKE
52% to win
Market spread
MSST -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
WAKE
3.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
48%
MSST · market 58%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MSST Elo 1491, WAKE Elo 1508) on a neutral field. That projects MSST +0.7 (48% to win) — 3.7 points of value on WAKE versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MSST (top)WAKE (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MSST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. WAKE rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge MSST.
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. WAKE pass defense (0.10 allowed) — edge MSST.
- WAKE pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. MSST pass defense (0.30 allowed) — edge MSST.
Drive-by-drive
WAKE 6/14 scoring drives← own end zone →MSST 6/14 scoring drives
MSSTFG7 pl, 60 yds· own 25Q1
WAKEPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 19Q1
MSSTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WAKE up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
WAKE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State?
Wake Forest 43, Mississippi State 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WAKE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.