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Wagner vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 5:00 PM
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAGN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| CMU | 14 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 49 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelWAGN 86% · CMU 14%
Market consensusWAGN 4% · CMU 96%
Pick: WAGN · 83 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Advanced stats unavailable for this matchup.
Drive-by-drive
WAGN 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CMU 7/13 scoring drives
WAGNTD2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
WAGNFUM6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1
CMUTD6 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q1
WAGNPUNT8 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1
CMUPUNT9 pl, 31 yds· own 1Q1
WAGNFG11 pl, 55 yds· own 30Q2
CMUTD1 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2
WAGNPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 5Q2
CMUTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
WAGNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
CMUTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
WAGNEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2
CMUPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3
WAGNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 22Q3
CMUTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
WAGNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
CMUTD3 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q3
WAGNPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3
CMUTD4 pl, 15 yds· opp 40Q3
CMUFUM1 pl, 10 yds· own 19Q4
WAGNDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 29Q4
CMUPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 24Q4
WAGNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 30Q4
CMUPUNT5 pl, 31 yds· own 3Q4
WAGNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 18Q4
CMUEND4 pl, 10 yds· own 34Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CMU up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
CMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Wagner vs. Central Michigan?
Wagner 10, Central Michigan 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WAGN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had WAGN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.