Wagner vs. Central Michigan: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Wagner0-1

0010

Central Michigan1-2

▸0049

Final

Kelly/Shorts Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
WAGN	0	3	0	7	10
CMU	14	21	14	0	49

WAGNTeam statsCMU

113Total yards506

41Pass273

72Rush233

6First downs24

2-143rd down5-11

2Turnovers2

27:37Possession32:23

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:56WAGNAustin Bailey 75 Yd Fumble Return (Nicholas Romero Kick)10–49
• Q3 2:54CMUAngel Flores 3 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)3–49
• Q3 5:43CMUBrock Townsend 22 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Cade Graham Kick)3–42
• Q2 0:16CMUTyson Davis 33 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)3–35
• Q2 1:41CMUTommy McIntosh 33 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)3–28
• Q2 8:22CMUNahree Biggins 88 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)3–21
• Q2 8:34WAGNNicholas Romero 33 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q1 8:15CMUAngel Flores 2 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:20CMUDakota Cochran 30 Yd Interception Return (Cade Graham Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

CMU −29.5

Against the number

CMU covered

line CMU −29.5

What the numbers say

• WAGN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CMU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.7 vs 3rd & 4.7

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

WAGN aheadCMU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = WAGN ahead, below = CMU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CMU −29.5

Closing total

46.5

Model line

—

Actual result

WAGN 10 – 49 CMU

Leaders

Wagner

• PassJack Stevens 3/5, 20 YDS, 1 INT
• RushMatt Morad 9 CAR, 35 YDS
• RecMalik Cooper 2 REC, 16 YDS

Central Michigan

• PassJoe Labas 12/14, 241 YDS, 3 TD
• RushTrey Cornist 11 CAR, 52 YDS
• RecNahree Biggins 3 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

28.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

126

Points / snap

0.47

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CMU up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

CMU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WLSU vs Grambling72-10WRobert Morris vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg46-0WClemson vs App State66-20WButler vs Hanover College53-0WNorth Carolina Central vs Delaware State52-10

Fourth downs

18 calls

WAGN gave up 0.7 points to the model on fourth down.WAGN 8/11 · CMU 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Wagner vs. Central Michigan?

Wagner 10, Central Michigan 49.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CMU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

WAGN

CMU

19%

Success rate

54%

-0.65

EPA / pass

1.05

-0.25

EPA / rush

0.13

15%

Early-down success

56%

24%

Pass success

70%

15%

Rush success

48%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

15%

43%

Pass rate

29%

7.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.7

WAGN

7.7 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

CMU

4.7 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

WAGN		CMU
113	Total yards	506
41	Passing yards	273
72	Rushing yards	233
6	First downs	24
2-14	3rd down	5-11
1-2	4th down	2-2
12/20	Comp/Att	14/18
2.1	Yards per pass	15.2
2.1	Yards per rush	4.9
2	Turnovers	2
3-25	Penalties	8-73
27:37	Possession	32:23

Fourth downs

18 calls

WAGN

8/11 with the model

−0.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

CMU

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 12:02 WAGN go for it on 4th & 5 at CMU 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.36 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WAGN 2/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CMU 7/13 scoring drives

WAGNTD2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

WAGNFUM6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q1

CMUTD6 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q1

WAGNPUNT8 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1

CMUPUNT9 pl, 31 yds· own 1Q1

WAGNFG11 pl, 55 yds· own 30Q2

CMUTD1 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q2

WAGNPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 5Q2

CMUTD7 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2

CMUTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

WAGNEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

CMUPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 22Q3

CMUTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

CMUTD3 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q3

WAGNPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q3

CMUTD4 pl, 15 yds· opp 40Q3

CMUFUM1 pl, 10 yds· own 19Q4

WAGNDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· opp 29Q4

CMUPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 24Q4

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 30Q4

CMUPUNT5 pl, 31 yds· own 3Q4

WAGNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 18Q4

CMUEND4 pl, 10 yds· own 34Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 13:56WAGNAustin Bailey 75 Yd Fumble Return (Nicholas Romero Kick)10–49
• Q3 2:54CMUAngel Flores 3 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)3–49
• Q3 5:43CMUBrock Townsend 22 Yd pass from Angel Flores (Cade Graham Kick)3–42
• Q2 0:16CMUTyson Davis 33 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)3–35
• Q2 1:41CMUTommy McIntosh 33 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)3–28
• Q2 8:22CMUNahree Biggins 88 Yd pass from Joe Labas (Cade Graham Kick)3–21
• Q2 8:34WAGNNicholas Romero 33 Yd Field Goal 3–14
• Q1 8:15CMUAngel Flores 2 Yd Run (Cade Graham Kick)0–14
• Q1 14:20CMUDakota Cochran 30 Yd Interception Return (Cade Graham Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →