VMI vs. Navy: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

VMI

07

Navy

▸0052

Final

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
VMI	0	0	7	0	7
NAVY	7	21	10	14	52

VMITeam statsNAVY

212Total yards556

197Pass92

15Rush464

9First downs26

4-143rd down10-13

0Turnovers0

24:33Possession35:27

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:37NAVYShane Reynolds 4 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–52
• Q4 9:39NAVYBraxton Woodson 68 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–45
• Q3 0:50NAVYBraxton Woodson 74 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–38
• Q3 7:13VMIOwen Sweeney 75 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Ben Shrewsbury Kick)7–31
• Q3 7:22NAVYNathan Kirkwood 28 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 0:48NAVYEli Heidenreich 4 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–28
• Q2 5:17NAVYAlex Tecza 6 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–21
• Q2 11:07NAVYEli Heidenreich 18 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:00NAVYMichael Barrow 7 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

NAVY −42

Against the number

NAVY covered

line NAVY −42

What the numbers say

• VMI played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NAVY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.2

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

NAVY 100%50%VMI 100%

Kickoff139 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

NAVY (top)VMI (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: NAVY 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NAVY −42

Closing total

54.0

Model line

—

Actual result

VMI 7 – 52 NAVY

Leaders

VMI

• PassCollin Shannon 16/25, 197 YDS, 1 TD
• RushLeo Boehling 8 CAR, 21 YDS
• RecOwen Sweeney 5 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD

Navy

• PassBlake Horvath 6/7, 66 YDS, 1 TD
• RushBraxton Woodson 7 CAR, 180 YDS, 2 TD
• RecEli Heidenreich 6 REC, 65 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

4.2sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.49

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NAVY up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NAVY went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WGeorgia Southern vs The Citadel34-0WButler vs Taylor41-13WTemple vs Norfolk State41-11WLouisiana vs UAB41-21WLamar vs Lincoln (CA)38-0

Fourth downs

13 calls

NAVY gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.VMI 9/9 · NAVY 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of VMI vs. Navy?

VMI 7, Navy 52.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (NAVY) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

VMI

NAVY

28%

Success rate

60%

0.11

EPA / pass

0.34

-0.18

EPA / rush

0.58

27%

Early-down success

56%

30%

Pass success

43%

24%

Rush success

64%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

24%

Stuffed rush rate

11%

66%

Pass rate

20%

8.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.2

VMI

8.9 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

NAVY

5.2 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

VMI		NAVY
212	Total yards	556
197	Passing yards	92
15	Rushing yards	464
9	First downs	26
4-14	3rd down	10-13
1-2	4th down	0-0
16/28	Comp/Att	9/14
7.0	Yards per pass	6.6
0.7	Yards per rush	8.3
0	Turnovers	0
5-35	Penalties	4-35
24:33	Possession	35:27

Fourth downs

13 calls

VMI

9/9 with the model

nothing given up

NAVY

2/3 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 0:00 NAVY punt on 4th & 10 at VMI 40. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

VMI 1/11 scoring drives← own end zone →NAVY 8/11 scoring drives

VMIPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1

NAVYTD11 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1

VMIPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 24Q1

NAVYPUNT6 pl, 13 yds· own 47Q1

VMIPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 4Q2

NAVYTD4 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q2

VMIDOWNS7 pl, 25 yds· own 18Q2

NAVYTD6 pl, 43 yds· opp 43Q2

VMIPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2

NAVYTD6 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q2

VMIEND2 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q2

NAVYFG15 pl, 66 yds· own 23Q3

VMITD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

NAVYPUNT4 pl, 11 yds· own 42Q3

VMIPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 20Q3

NAVYTD3 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q3

VMIPUNT10 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q3

NAVYTD4 pl, 94 yds· own 6Q4

VMIPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4

NAVYTD10 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4

VMIPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 35Q4

NAVYEND2 pl, -4 yds· own 24Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:37NAVYShane Reynolds 4 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–52
• Q4 9:39NAVYBraxton Woodson 68 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–45
• Q3 0:50NAVYBraxton Woodson 74 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)7–38
• Q3 7:13VMIOwen Sweeney 75 Yd pass from Collin Shannon (Ben Shrewsbury Kick)7–31
• Q3 7:22NAVYNathan Kirkwood 28 Yd Field Goal 0–31
• Q2 0:48NAVYEli Heidenreich 4 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–28
• Q2 5:17NAVYAlex Tecza 6 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–21
• Q2 11:07NAVYEli Heidenreich 18 Yd pass from Blake Horvath (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:00NAVYMichael Barrow 7 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →