Virginia vs. Duke: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsDUKE
- Q4 5:42UVAWill Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q4 9:30DUKETre Freeman 18 Yd Interception Return (Todd Pelino Kick)31–17
- Q4 10:23DUKECooper Barkate 11 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)31–10
- Q3 2:27UVAJ'Mari Taylor 78 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)31–3
- Q3 6:49UVATrell Harris 20 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:00UVAWill Bettridge 44 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 1:39UVASage Ennis 12 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)14–3
- Q2 5:33DUKETodd Pelino 49 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:13UVAJ'Mari Taylor 5 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UVA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and DUKE did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassChandler Morris 23/35, 316 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 18 CAR, 133 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrell Harris 8 REC, 161 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDarian Mensah 18/35, 213 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNate Sheppard 12 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecLanden King 2 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:04DUKE +14%
Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete deep left to #11 T.Harris thrown to DUKE00 broken up by #21 L.Callahan PENALTY UVA Holding (#68 J.Witmer) 10 yards from DUKE37 to D…
- Q3 6:49UVA +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass complete short right to #11 T.Harris caught at DUKE08, for 20 yards to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:00UVA +7%
Will Bettridge 44 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. Duke?
Virginia 34, Duke 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UVA | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 540 | Total yards | 255 |
| 316 | Passing yards | 213 |
| 224 | Rushing yards | 42 |
| 22 | First downs | 11 |
| 12-19 | 3rd down | 4-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 23/35 | Comp/Att | 18/35 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 3-45 |
| 35:58 | Possession | 24:02 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:11 DUKE punt on 4th & 1 at DUKE 25. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.84 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:42UVAWill Bettridge 42 Yd Field Goal 34–17
- Q4 9:30DUKETre Freeman 18 Yd Interception Return (Todd Pelino Kick)31–17
- Q4 10:23DUKECooper Barkate 11 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Todd Pelino Kick)31–10
- Q3 2:27UVAJ'Mari Taylor 78 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)31–3
- Q3 6:49UVATrell Harris 20 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)24–3
- Q2 0:00UVAWill Bettridge 44 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 1:39UVASage Ennis 12 Yd pass from Chandler Morris (Will Bettridge Kick)14–3
- Q2 5:33DUKETodd Pelino 49 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:13UVAJ'Mari Taylor 5 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (DUKE Elo 1625, UVA Elo 1555 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -5.2 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#48 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #76 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Virginia leads 40–34 · 27% have been one-possession games
| UVA | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.3 (#39) | CORE overall | +2.4 (#60) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | +9 / +7 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 3.04 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.85 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →