Virginia
8-2·ACC· Elo 1555
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 7 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 34 |
| DUKE | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (DUKE Elo 1625, UVA Elo 1555) plus home-field advantage. That projects DUKE -5.2 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UVA up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Virginia 34, Duke 17.
No — the model picked DUKE, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had DUKE pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(02:38) Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush right for 78 yards gain to the DUKE00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:27, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass intercepted by #12 T.Freeman at UVA18 QB hurried by #99 A.Hall #12 T.Freeman return 18 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:30 #29 T.Pelino kick attempt good (H: #41 K.Reynoldson, LS: #57 C.Cooper)
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 D.Mensah pass complete short left to #2 S.Hagans caught at UVA33, for 48 yards to the UVA04 fumbled by #2 S.Hagans at UVA24 forced by #28 D.Platt recovered by DUKE #18 C.Barkate at UVA17 (#30 E.Minter), 1ST DOWN
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