Virginia vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UVATeam statsCAL
- Q4 0:34UVAKam Robinson 35 Yd Interception Return (Will Bettridge Kick)31–21
- Q4 12:57CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)24–21
- Q3 1:51UVAEli Wood 3 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)24–14
- Q3 6:08CALKendrick Raphael 42 Yd pass from Mason Mini (Chase Meyer Kick)17–14
- Q2 5:27UVAJ'Mari Taylor 5 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)17–7
- Q2 13:01CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:21UVAWill Bettridge 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:58UVAJ'Mari Taylor 25 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CAL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UVA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassChandler Morris 24/36, 262 YDS
- RushJ'Mari Taylor 21 CAR, 105 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrell Harris 5 REC, 68 YDS
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 19/30, 213 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKendrick Raphael 13 CAR, 46 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrond Grizzell 8 REC, 80 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUVA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 2:29UVA +27%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CAL18 (#46 A.Hampton)
- Q4 12:57CAL +26%
Shotgun #1 K.Raphael rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q3 6:08CAL +26%
Shotgun #85 M.Mini pass complete deep right to #1 K.Raphael caught at UVA15, for 42 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 1:51UVA +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #82 E.Wood rush right for 3 yards gain to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q2 5:27UVA +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 13:01CAL +16%
K. Raphael run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Meyer KICK) (W. Bettridge KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Virginia vs. California?
Virginia 31, California 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
| UVA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 263 |
| 262 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 194 | Rushing yards | 8 |
| 23 | First downs | 14 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 20/32 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 0.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 3-21 |
| 35:26 | Possession | 24:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:59 UVA punt on 4th & 2 at UVA 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:34UVAKam Robinson 35 Yd Interception Return (Will Bettridge Kick)31–21
- Q4 12:57CALKendrick Raphael 1 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)24–21
- Q3 1:51UVAEli Wood 3 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)24–14
- Q3 6:08CALKendrick Raphael 42 Yd pass from Mason Mini (Chase Meyer Kick)17–14
- Q2 5:27UVAJ'Mari Taylor 5 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)17–7
- Q2 13:01CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)10–7
- Q1 5:21UVAWill Bettridge 26 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 11:58UVAJ'Mari Taylor 25 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1397, UVA Elo 1580 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +4.9 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UVA | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.3 (#39) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#85) |
| +1 / -9 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →