| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVA | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| CAL | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CAL Elo 1397, UVA Elo 1580) plus home-field advantage. That projects CAL +4.9 (36% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UVA up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Virginia 31, California 21.
Yes — the model's pick (UVA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UVA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Sagapolutele pass intercepted by #5 K.Robinson at CAL35 #5 K.Robinson return 35 yards to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:34 #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)
(00:45) Shotgun #4 C.Morris pass incomplete short left to #0 S.Ennis thrown to CAL11 broken up by #96 D.Wilkins, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Taylor rush middle for 25 yards gain to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:58, 1ST DOWN #41 W.Bettridge kick attempt good (H: #38 D.Sparks, LS: #69 B.Robinson)
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