Utah vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsWYO
- Q4 1:11UTAHHunter Andrews 11 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–6
- Q4 4:23WYOTerron Kellman 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q4 8:35UTAHJJ Buchanan 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)24–0
- Q3 0:23UTAHLarry Simmons 8 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)17–0
- Q3 10:46UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:22UTAHDillon Curtis 43 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassDevon Dampier 27/41, 230 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDevon Dampier 13 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecRyan Davis 10 REC, 91 YDS
- PassKaden Anderson 12/23, 108 YDS, 1 INT
- RushSamuel Harris 8 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecChris Durr Jr. 5 REC, 40 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. Wyoming?
Utah 31, Wyoming 6.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| UTAH | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 541 | Total yards | 229 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 108 |
| 311 | Rushing yards | 121 |
| 31 | First downs | 15 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 27/41 | Comp/Att | 12/23 |
| 5.6 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 6.9 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-100 | Penalties | 5-45 |
| 35:30 | Possession | 24:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:28 WYO punt on 4th & 1 at WYO 12. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:11UTAHHunter Andrews 11 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)31–6
- Q4 4:23WYOTerron Kellman 15 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–6
- Q4 8:35UTAHJJ Buchanan 14 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)24–0
- Q3 0:23UTAHLarry Simmons 8 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)17–0
- Q3 10:46UTAHNaQuari Rogers 1 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–0
- Q1 10:22UTAHDillon Curtis 43 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1377, UTAH Elo 1630 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +7.7 (31% to win) — 16.8 points clear of WYO's market line of +24.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUtah leads 51–31–1 · Utah has won 5 straight · 23% have been one-possession games
| UTAH | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#7) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#111) |
| +19 / -10 | offense / defense | -18 / -3 |
| 3.52 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 1.62 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →