Utah
2-0·Big 12· Elo 1630
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 3 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 31 |
| WYO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WYO Elo 1377, UTAH Elo 1630) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO +7.7 (28% to win) — 16.8 points of value on WYO versus the market line of +24.5.
UTAH up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah 31, Wyoming 6.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Nate Johnson run for 16 yds to the WYO 3 Nate Johnson fumbled, recovered by WYO Andrew Johnson
Devon Dampier pass complete to Dallen Bentley for 23 yds to the WYO 23 for a 1ST down
Kaden Anderson sacked by John Henry Daley for a loss of 15 yards to the UTAH 36
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