Utah vs. West Virginia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTAHTeam statsWVU
- Q4 1:56UTAHBryce Duke 2 Yd pass from Byrd Ficklin (Dillon Curtis Kick)48–14
- Q4 7:59WVUDiore Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)41–14
- Q4 10:46UTAHDillon Curtis 33 Yd Field Goal 41–7
- Q3 5:18UTAHDillon Curtis 33 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q3 7:28WVUCam Vaughn 39 Yd pass from Khalil Wilkins (Kade Hensley Kick)35–7
- Q3 10:42UTAHWayshawn Parker 11 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)35–0
- Q2 0:13UTAHDallen Bentley 2 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)28–0
- Q2 11:32UTAHRyan Davis 32 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:33UTAHDevon Dampier 7 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:16UTAHJJ Buchanan 7 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WVU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTAH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.5 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassDevon Dampier 21/26, 237 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushWayshawn Parker 9 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecRyan Davis 7 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
- PassKhalil Wilkins 3/6, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJarod Bowie 1 CAR, 68 YDS
- RecCam Vaughn 3 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:16UTAH +16%
West Virginia Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Yards) declined
- Q1 1:33UTAH +11%
Devon Dampier run for 7 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
- Q2 11:32UTAH +6%
Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 32 yds for a TD (Dillon Curtis KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah vs. West Virginia?
Utah 48, West Virginia 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| UTAH | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| 532 | Total yards | 346 |
| 290 | Passing yards | 85 |
| 242 | Rushing yards | 261 |
| 33 | First downs | 14 |
| 8-13 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 4-7 |
| 25/30 | Comp/Att | 6/13 |
| 9.7 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 5.1 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-43 | Penalties | 6-70 |
| 34:45 | Possession | 25:15 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:56 WVU punt on 4th & 3 at WVU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.58 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56UTAHBryce Duke 2 Yd pass from Byrd Ficklin (Dillon Curtis Kick)48–14
- Q4 7:59WVUDiore Hubbard 1 Yd Run (Kade Hensley Kick)41–14
- Q4 10:46UTAHDillon Curtis 33 Yd Field Goal 41–7
- Q3 5:18UTAHDillon Curtis 33 Yd Field Goal 38–7
- Q3 7:28WVUCam Vaughn 39 Yd pass from Khalil Wilkins (Kade Hensley Kick)35–7
- Q3 10:42UTAHWayshawn Parker 11 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)35–0
- Q2 0:13UTAHDallen Bentley 2 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)28–0
- Q2 11:32UTAHRyan Davis 32 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)21–0
- Q1 1:33UTAHDevon Dampier 7 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:16UTAHJJ Buchanan 7 Yd pass from Devon Dampier (Dillon Curtis Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WVU Elo 1414, UTAH Elo 1607 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WVU +5.3 (37% to win) — 7.7 points clear of WVU's market line of +13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UTAH | WVU | |
|---|---|---|
| +29.1 (#7) | CORE overall | -10.6 (#98) |
| +19 / -10 | offense / defense | -11 / -1 |
| 3.52 | points / drive | 1.51 |
| 1.62 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →