| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 14 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 48 |
| WVU | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WVU Elo 1414, UTAH Elo 1607) plus home-field advantage. That projects WVU +5.3 (35% to win) — 7.7 points of value on WVU versus the market line of +13.
UTAH up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah 48, West Virginia 14.
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTAH pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jarod Bowie run for 68 yds to the UTAH 7 for a 1ST down
Khalil Wilkins pass complete to Cam Vaughn for 39 yds for a TD (Kade Hensley KICK)
Devon Dampier pass intercepted Nick Taylor return for no gain to the WVU 20
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