Valley Children's StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| FRES | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FRES 1510
USU 1423
Projected spread
FRES -5.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
FRES
67% to win
Market spread
FRES -1.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
FRES
4.4 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
67%
FRES · market 55%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1510, USU Elo 1423) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES -5.9 (67% to win) — 4.4 points of value on FRES versus the market line of -1.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FRES (top)USU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FRES 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- FRES rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. USU rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge USU.
- USU rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. FRES rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge USU.
- USU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge USU.
Drive-by-drive
USU 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →FRES 3/13 scoring drives
USUPUNT7 pl, 39 yds· own 25Q1
FRESPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 16Q1
USUPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
FRES up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
61%
FRES went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. Fresno State?
Utah State 28, Fresno State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had FRES pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.