Sun, Nov 23, 3:30 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 28 |
| FRES | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (FRES Elo 1510, USU Elo 1423) plus home-field advantage. That projects FRES -5.9 (67% to win) — 4.4 points of value on FRES versus the market line of -1.5.
FRES up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Utah State 28, Fresno State 17.
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had FRES pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Rayshon Luke 69 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)
(00:39) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass intercepted by #14 B.Olevao Jr. at UST03 #14 B.Olevao Jr. return 17 yards to the UST20 (#88 R.Anderson III) PENALTY FST Pass Interference declined
Jahlil McClain 43 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)
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