Utah State vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsFRES
- Q4 6:05USUJaven Jacobs 32 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)28–17
- Q4 10:37USUJaven Jacobs 19 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)21–17
- Q3 5:18USUBryson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:39FRESJahlil McClain 43 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:18FRESDylan Lynch 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:27USUBrady Boyd 24 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:05FRESRayshon Luke 69 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBryson Barnes 16/30, 151 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBryson Barnes 23 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecBraden Pegan 8 REC, 80 YDS
- PassE.J. Warner 23/33, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushRayshon Luke 4 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJahlil McClain 2 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFRES up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:21USU +29%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 B.Barnes pass incomplete deep middle to #10 A.Garcia thrown to FST43 broken up by #1 J.Embry
- Q2 0:39FRES +22%
Jahlil McClain 43 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)
- Q2 15:00USU +17%
Shotgun #5 J.Freeman rush left for 55 yards gain to the UST00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty PENALTY FST Holding (#15 K.Beachem) 10 yards from FST45 to FST35. NO PLAY
- Q1 7:05FRES +17%
Rayshon Luke 69 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)
- Q1 0:30USU +14%
Shotgun #31 B.Ramirez rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FST40 (#18 I.Larsen), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
- Q4 14:20USU +12%
Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short left to #2 R.Luke caught at FST42, for 2 yards loss to the FST42, out of bounds at FST42
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. Fresno State?
Utah State 28, Fresno State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 365 |
| 177 | Passing yards | 187 |
| 232 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 27 | First downs | 12 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-3 |
| 18/32 | Comp/Att | 23/33 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 5.7 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-40 | Penalties | 10-93 |
| 34:05 | Possession | 25:55 |
Costliest call
Q2 4:15 FRES punt on 4th & 2 at USU 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:05USUJaven Jacobs 32 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)28–17
- Q4 10:37USUJaven Jacobs 19 Yd Run (Tanner Rinker Kick)21–17
- Q3 5:18USUBryson Barnes 2 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)14–17
- Q2 0:39FRESJahlil McClain 43 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:18FRESDylan Lynch 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 0:27USUBrady Boyd 24 Yd pass from Anthony Garcia (Tanner Rinker Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:05FRESRayshon Luke 69 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1510, USU Elo 1423 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -5.9 (66% to win) — 4.4 points clear of FRES's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesFresno State leads 19–14–1 · 35% have been one-possession games
| USU | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#77) | CORE overall | -3.4 (#73) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 2.33 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 1.49 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →