| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | 3 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 33 |
| PUR | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PUR Elo 1293, USC Elo 1895) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR +21.7 (5% to win), essentially in line with the market.
USC up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
USC 33, Purdue 17.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Jamaal Jarrett 70 Yd Interception Return (Ryon Sayeri Kick)
Ryan Browne pass intercepted, touchback. Bishop Fitzgerald return for no gain
Ryan Browne pass intercepted Bishop Fitzgerald return for 33 yds to the USC 35
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