USC vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USCTeam statsPUR
- Q4 1:10USCRyon Sayeri 19 Yd Field Goal 33–17
- Q4 14:17PURNitro Tuggle 9 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)30–17
- Q3 2:15USCJamaal Jarrett 70 Yd Interception Return (Ryon Sayeri Kick)30–10
- Q3 5:01USCRyon Sayeri 48 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 8:47PURRyan Browne 26 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)20–10
- Q3 12:15USCRyon Sayeri 37 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 3:18USCWaymond Jordan 6 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)17–3
- Q2 10:49PURSpencer Porath 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 14:54USCJayden Maiava 3 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:39USCRyon Sayeri 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassJayden Maiava 17/28, 282 YDS
- RushWaymond Jordan 18 CAR, 77 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJa'Kobi Lane 3 REC, 115 YDS
- PassRyan Browne 24/39, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushDevin Mockobee 12 CAR, 45 YDS
- RecMichael Jackson III 7 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 14:54USC +5%
Jayden Maiava run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryon Sayeri KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of USC vs. Purdue?
USC 33, Purdue 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| USC | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 460 | Total yards | 357 |
| 282 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 178 | Rushing yards | 52 |
| 22 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 4-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 17/28 | Comp/Att | 24/39 |
| 10.1 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 1.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 9-103 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 34:07 | Possession | 25:53 |
Costliest call
Q2 12:59 PUR punt on 4th & 3 at PUR 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:10USCRyon Sayeri 19 Yd Field Goal 33–17
- Q4 14:17PURNitro Tuggle 9 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)30–17
- Q3 2:15USCJamaal Jarrett 70 Yd Interception Return (Ryon Sayeri Kick)30–10
- Q3 5:01USCRyon Sayeri 48 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q3 8:47PURRyan Browne 26 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)20–10
- Q3 12:15USCRyon Sayeri 37 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 3:18USCWaymond Jordan 6 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)17–3
- Q2 10:49PURSpencer Porath 39 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 14:54USCJayden Maiava 3 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)10–0
- Q1 7:39USCRyon Sayeri 24 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1293, USC Elo 1895 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +21.7 (9% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USC | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +22.5 (#10) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#93) |
| +18 / -4 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
| 3.53 | points / drive | 1.57 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →