UNLV vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsWYO
- Q4 1:55WYOJustin Erb 6 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)31–17
- Q4 6:20UNLVJai'Den Thomas 8 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)31–10
- Q3 12:46WYODeion DeBlanc 12 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:59UNLVJaden Bradley 13 Yd Punt Return (Ramon Villela Kick)24–3
- Q1 1:36UNLVRamon Villela 36 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q1 6:29UNLVKayden McGee 16 Yd Punt Return (Ramon Villela Kick)14–3
- Q1 9:18UNLVKeyvone Lee 6 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:59WYOErik Sandvik 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassAnthony Colandrea 11/20, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJai'Den Thomas 16 CAR, 96 YDS
- RecJaden Bradley 5 REC, 65 YDS
- PassKaden Anderson 25/46, 254 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSam Scott 11 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecJaylen Sargent 4 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:54WYO +7%
Anthony Colandrea run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 19 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by WYO Evan Eller
- Q4 1:34UNLV +6%
Jaylon Glover run for 5 yds to the WYO 41
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Wyoming?
UNLV 31, Wyoming 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| UNLV | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| 255 | Total yards | 356 |
| 102 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 153 | Rushing yards | 102 |
| 15 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 3-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 11/20 | Comp/Att | 25/46 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-67 | Penalties | 6-46 |
| 30:22 | Possession | 29:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:41 UNLV punt on 4th & 5 at WYO 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:55WYOJustin Erb 6 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)31–17
- Q4 6:20UNLVJai'Den Thomas 8 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)31–10
- Q3 12:46WYODeion DeBlanc 12 Yd Run (Erik Sandvik Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:59UNLVJaden Bradley 13 Yd Punt Return (Ramon Villela Kick)24–3
- Q1 1:36UNLVRamon Villela 36 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q1 6:29UNLVKayden McGee 16 Yd Punt Return (Ramon Villela Kick)14–3
- Q1 9:18UNLVKeyvone Lee 6 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–3
- Q1 12:59WYOErik Sandvik 36 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WYO Elo 1326, UNLV Elo 1622 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WYO +9.4 (28% to win) — 4.9 points clear of UNLV's market line of +4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWyoming leads 14–13 · UNLV has won 2 straight · 52% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#69) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#111) |
| +10 / +12 | offense / defense | -18 / -3 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 1.07 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.65 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →