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UNLV vs. Wyoming: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 4, 11:00 PM
War Memorial StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 17 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 |
| WYO | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WYO 1326
UNLV 1622
Projected spread
WYO +9.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
UNLV
76% to win
Market spread
WYO +4.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
UNLV
4.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
24%
WYO · market 35%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WYO Elo 1326, UNLV Elo 1622) plus home-field advantage. That projects WYO +9.4 (24% to win) — 4.9 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of +4.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WYO (top)UNLV (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WYO 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UNLV2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedWYO
Offense
0.30
PPA / play
0.0547%
Success rate
38%1.34
Explosiveness
1.174.45
Pts / opportunity
2.9071%
Power success
56%Defense
0.21
PPA allowed / play
0.0744%
Success rate allowed
38%1.33
Explosiveness allowed
1.2115%
Havoc rate
13%17%
Stuff rate
17%Key matchups · Pro
- UNLV pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. WYO pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge UNLV.
- WYO rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. UNLV rush defense (0.23 allowed) — edge UNLV.
- UNLV rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. WYO rush defense (0.09 allowed) — edge UNLV.
Drive-by-drive
UNLV 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →WYO 5/13 scoring drives
UNLVFUM1 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1
WYOFG4 pl, 1 yds· opp 19Q1
UNLVTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q1
WYOTD4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q1
WYOFUM4 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q1
UNLVFG9 pl, 17 yds· opp 35Q1
WYODOWNS10 pl, 50 yds· own 10Q1
UNLVPUNT5 pl, 11 yds· own 40Q2
WYOPUNT7 pl, 42 yds· own 7Q2
UNLVPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 12Q2
WYOFUM2 pl, 6 yds· opp 30Q2
UNLVPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 24Q2
WYOTD6 pl, 25 yds· own 1Q2
WYOEND2 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
WYOTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
UNLVPUNT6 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q3
WYOINT10 pl, 58 yds· own 21Q3
UNLVPUNT12 pl, 42 yds· own 14Q3
WYOPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q4
UNLVTD10 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q4
WYOTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
WYODOWNS4 pl, 0 yds· own 46Q4
UNLVEND5 pl, 18 yds· opp 46Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
UNLV up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
UNLV went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Wyoming?
UNLV 31, Wyoming 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.