UNLV
9-2·Mountain West· Elo 1663
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 7 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| NEV | 3 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 17 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NEV Elo 1303, UNLV Elo 1663) plus home-field advantage. That projects NEV +12 (19% to win) — 4.5 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of +7.5.
UNLV up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UNLV 42, Nevada 17.
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNLV pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:57) Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass intercepted by #5 M.Kenion III at Nevada00 #5 M.Kenion III return 14 yards to the Nevada14 (#0 T.Omeire), out of bounds
(11:35) Shotgun #41 C.Ramseur rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UNLV35 fumbled by #41 C.Ramseur at UNLV42 forced by #15 B.Alualu-Tuiolemotu recovered by UNLV #1 C.Borders at UNLV35, End Of Play
(14:56) Shotgun #13 C.Purdy rush middle for 58 yards gain to the UNLV17 (#4 A.Powdrell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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