UNLV vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsNEV
- Q4 4:38NEVCaleb Ramseur 3 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)42–17
- Q4 11:35UNLVJai'Den Thomas 1 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)42–10
- Q3 12:13UNLVJai'Den Thomas 4 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)35–10
- Q3 14:17NEVCaleb Ramseur 17 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)28–10
- Q2 4:09UNLVJai'Den Thomas 18 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)28–3
- Q2 10:55UNLVAnthony Colandrea 17 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:55UNLVTroy Omeire 17 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)14–3
- Q1 1:05NEVJoe McFadden 40 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:20UNLVJai'Den Thomas 17 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNLV played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and NEV did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassAnthony Colandrea 15/22, 270 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushJai'Den Thomas 11 CAR, 103 YDS, 4 TD
- RecJaden Bradley 3 REC, 71 YDS
- PassCarter Jones 17/25, 105 YDS
- RushCaleb Ramseur 15 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJett Carpenter 5 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNLV up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:20UNLV +11%
Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 17 yards gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 13:55UNLV +10%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea pass complete short middle to #0 T.Omeire caught at Nevada07, for 17 yards to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 1:05NEV +5%
#84 J.McFadden field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Nevada?
UNLV 42, Nevada 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNLV) was correct.
| UNLV | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 496 | Total yards | 341 |
| 270 | Passing yards | 148 |
| 226 | Rushing yards | 193 |
| 24 | First downs | 23 |
| 5-7 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 15/22 | Comp/Att | 23/34 |
| 12.3 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 6.8 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 14-92 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 27:09 | Possession | 32:51 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:28 NEV punt on 4th & 2 at NEV 28. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.48 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:38NEVCaleb Ramseur 3 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)42–17
- Q4 11:35UNLVJai'Den Thomas 1 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)42–10
- Q3 12:13UNLVJai'Den Thomas 4 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)35–10
- Q3 14:17NEVCaleb Ramseur 17 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)28–10
- Q2 4:09UNLVJai'Den Thomas 18 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)28–3
- Q2 10:55UNLVAnthony Colandrea 17 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–3
- Q2 13:55UNLVTroy Omeire 17 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)14–3
- Q1 1:05NEVJoe McFadden 40 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:20UNLVJai'Den Thomas 17 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1303, UNLV Elo 1663 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +12 (22% to win) — 4.5 points clear of UNLV's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNevada leads 25–17 · UNLV has won 4 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#69) | CORE overall | -15.3 (#110) |
| +10 / +12 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 1.33 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 2.49 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →