UNLV vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNLVTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 3:13BOISColton Boomer 50 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 13:21BOISSire Gaines 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)21–35
- Q3 2:59UNLVJoJo Earle 7 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–28
- Q2 0:48UNLVTroy Omeire 11 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:50BOISMalik Sherrod 39 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)7–28
- Q2 3:08UNLVAnthony Colandrea 5 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–21
- Q2 8:42BOISCameron Bates 7 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:18BOISDylan Riley 9 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:40BOISMaddux Madsen 10 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNLV played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BOIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassAnthony Colandrea 18/38, 225 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAnthony Colandrea 12 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJoJo Earle 2 REC, 45 YDS
- PassMaddux Madsen 17/31, 289 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDylan Riley 21 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecChase Penry 3 REC, 96 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 6:40BOIS +18%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen rush right for 10 yards gain to the NLV00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 2:59UNLV +18%
Shotgun #11 J.Earle rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:18BOIS +15%
Shotgun #4 M.Madsen pass complete short right to #24 D.Riley caught at NLV14, for 9 yards to the NLV00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 13:21BOIS +12%
#26 S.Gaines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NLV00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 3:08UNLV +9%
Shotgun #10 A.Colandrea rush left for 5 yards gain to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 8:42BOIS +9%
#4 M.Madsen pass complete short left to #80 C.Bates caught at NLV00, for 7 yards to the NLV00 QB hurried by #55 C.Fuller TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Boise State?
UNLV 21, Boise State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNLV | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 409 | Total yards | 460 |
| 225 | Passing yards | 289 |
| 184 | Rushing yards | 171 |
| 22 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 10-16 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/38 | Comp/Att | 17/31 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-70 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 28:40 | Possession | 31:20 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:49 UNLV go for it on 4th & 6 at BOIS 28. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.34 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:13BOISColton Boomer 50 Yd Field Goal 21–38
- Q4 13:21BOISSire Gaines 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)21–35
- Q3 2:59UNLVJoJo Earle 7 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)21–28
- Q2 0:48UNLVTroy Omeire 11 Yd pass from Anthony Colandrea (Ramon Villela Kick)14–28
- Q2 1:50BOISMalik Sherrod 39 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)7–28
- Q2 3:08UNLVAnthony Colandrea 5 Yd Run (Ramon Villela Kick)7–21
- Q2 8:42BOISCameron Bates 7 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:18BOISDylan Riley 9 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 6:40BOISMaddux Madsen 10 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1614, UNLV Elo 1689 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS +0.6 (50% to win) — 6.1 points clear of UNLV's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 10–0 · Boise State has won 10 straight · 10% have been one-possession games
| UNLV | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#69) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#55) |
| +10 / +12 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →