UNLV vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Dec 6, 1:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLV | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| BOIS | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (BOIS Elo 1614, UNLV Elo 1689) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS +0.6 (48% to win) — 6.1 points of value on UNLV versus the market line of -5.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: UNLV · 15 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Defense
Key matchups · Pro
- UNLV pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge UNLV.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. UNLV rush defense (0.23 allowed) — edge UNLV.
- UNLV rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. BOIS rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge UNLV.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BOIS up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UNLV vs. Boise State?
UNLV 21, Boise State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNLV, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
I had UNLV pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.